Immigration hit by Brexit, Trump effect

There’s been a massive increase in the number of Britons and Americans planning to come to New Zealand since Britain’s Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s political rise.

The surge in interest in New Zealand was confirmed as the Real Estate Institute compiled a chart laying bare the strong connection between net migration and house price rises.

Immigration New Zealand typically receives 3000 registrations from Britons wanting to work, study or invest in this country each month, through its New Zealand Now website.

But that leapt to 5005 in the 12 days immediately following Britain’s June 23 Brexit referendum, in which Britons voted to leave the European Union, spokeswoman Emma Murphy said.

The department also normally received 7000 registrations from Americans wanting to work, study or invest in New Zealand each quarter, through New Zealand Now, she said.

But that had risen to 13,522 in the less than three months since Donald Trump won the Republican Party’s pivotal Indiana primary on May 3.

New Zealand gained a record 69,090 people through migration in the year to May, though Westpac said this week that it believed annual net migration might have peaked last month.

The Real Estate Institute’s chart showed how house price movements had closely tracked migration over the past 20 years, sometimes with a slight lag.

Even at its peaks, migration has only increased the country’s population by about 1.5 per cent a year, while annual house price rises have hit double figures.

But that could be explained by what economists describe as the relatively ‘‘inelastic’’ supply and demand for housing.

People need somewhere to live, but higher prices can’t result in a lot of new houses being built within a year, so small increases in demand show through in big price movements – at least in the short term.

Murphy said the ‘‘significant increase’’ in interest in New Zealand from Britons had also shown through in visits to its departmental and New Zealand Now websites.

About 3700 Britons normally visited the websites each day, but that had nearly trebled to 10,000 in the 12 days following the Brexit referendum.

Visits from the United States rose from an average of 6100 a day before the Indiana primary to 8700 since, she said.

Kiri Barfoot, a director at Auckland estate agent Barfoot and Thompson, said migration was certainly a factor in Auckland’s house price boom though she did not believe it was the biggest.

‘‘You’ve not only got external immigration, where they come from overseas, but you’ve got people coming from other parts of New Zealand as well.

‘‘If there was enough supply in Auckland, prices would stay the same.

‘‘Auckland’s where the jobs are ... we’re no different to any other big city around the world.

‘‘Sydney, London, New York – people want to live in the big cities and that creates pressure points.’’

Other considerations were low interest rates and easy lending criteria, she said.

‘‘People still bought houses in the 1980s when interest rates were 20 per cent so it’s only one factor but it’s definitely been an influence.’’