Analysis points to Brazil as most likely to win Cup
A sophisticated analysis of several factors including form, past performance and national interest in soccer point to what most people are already predicting — Brazil triumphantly lifting the World Cup this year.
With nine days to go until the tournament kicks off in the Brazilian city of Sao Paulo, PricewaterhouseCoopers has turned to econometrics to pick a likely winner.
Its findings reinforce popular perception that the strongest soccer nations are Latin America giants Brazil and Argentina, and European powerhouses Germany and Spain.
But unlike the Olympic Games, where there seems to be a correlation between medals and the size of the economy, there is no such link between World Cup success and GDP per capita, or population size, according to PwC.
The key factors for the PwC index are recent form, the number of available players, national interest in soccer and long-term footballing tradition.
According to the index, Brazil is the most likely team to triumph this year, followed by Germany, Argentina, Spain, Colombia, Uruguay and Italy.
Home advantage is also significant, with the home team usually leaping two rounds further than they would otherwise achieve, thanks to home support and familiarity with the conditions.
“Let’s not forget that sport is unpredictable though, and every once in a while, the planets align and a bit of magic happens,” PwC director and economist Chris Money said.
Where the tournament is played is also a solid indication of likely winners.
A European team has never won a World Cup in the Americas, while a Latin American team has only ever won once in Europe — Brazil in 1958 in Sweden.