Fair scheduling, but England can pull off a win
Sadly the first port of call when looking ahead to this tour must be to consider the degree of calamity that the first test will bring. It is not a good starting point. I will let you into a secret: New Zealand will win. There are no Nostradamus awards there.
But, crucially, I do not think it will be the ritual slaughter most presume. For England can cope with the losses better than most. Imagine if Wales were faced with this problem. They have enough trouble with injuries ahead of their tour to South Africa. Were they going to New Zealand in England’s position, the tour might be stopped on humanitarian grounds.
First five-eighths and hooker present England’s greatest complications, where Freddie Burns — after Owen Farrell, Stephen Myler, Alex Goode and George Ford — and Dave Ward — after Dylan Hartley, Tom Youngs, Rob Webber and David Paice — are likely to play as fifth choices.
If Joe Marler does not pass muster, loosehead prop will also cause concern. But otherwise the line-up is not weak, not even if Mike Brown also fails to make it. Chris Pennell would be set for a first cap after injury prevented Anthony Watson travelling and Pennell was preferred to Mathew Tait because of his goalkicking. Burns and the other fly-half already in New Zealand, Danny Cipriani, are erratic goal kickers, so Pennell could be handed the duties. Whether it is Burns or Cipriani at flyhalf, they will have a hugely important role to play in England’s blitz defence, which was so instrumental in securing victory at Twickenham in 2012 and causing New Zealand so many jitters in defeat last year.
“We’ve got a pretty good line speed,” Lancaster said. “If you have got one player in the line who is not so certain about doing that, it is going to unpick the whole system.”
When France, shorn of a small number of Top 14 finalists, stunned the All Blacks in that first test last summer, losing 23-13 in a match that was closer than that scoreline suggests, it was because they had changed their defensive system to a blitz. New Zealand struggled to cope with it but, as they do, eventually found a way to win and then kicked on — or rather kicked a lot — in the second test which they won 30-0.
They will doubtless kick a lot against England, too. Aaron Smith is the best box kicker in the business, the template for England’s halfbacks to copy. Care’s game in that regard has improved much, but it still needs constant attention.
New Zealand have lost only seven of 36 matches against England, and just two from 12 matches at home, in 1973 and 2003. England were, of course, the last side to beat the All Blacks, in 2012. And it should not be forgotten that the first (Northern) autumn international this year is also against New Zealand. It will be the first time the All Blacks have played four consecutive tests against the same opponents since touring South Africa in 1996. In effect we have a four-test series. Given the first-test fiasco, that might be the best way to look at it.
I genuinely think England could find themselves at 2-2 in November. The home match is eminently winnable. England, especially in their attacking play, have improved enormously since last autumn. So to win one test in the next three weeks must be the aim. It can be done.