The seven crucial factors that will largely determine election result
1 John Key’s personal popularity. National’s biggest asset. The marked lift in the economy would probably still have National well clear of Labour had Key fallen under the proverbial bus. But not at a sufficient level to win a third term in power. Key is the difference. No one else in National has the agility to cross the political divide and lure people who would normally never vote National.
2 The ‘no-change’ election. This election is in the same class as the ones in 2002 and 1987 where Labour victory was a foregone conclusion. Antagonism towards the incumbent ruling party is arguably even more sporadic than it was in those cases. To the message of change being pushed by Opposition parties, the electorate seems to be emitting a collective yawn that says, “Why change?” The difference with those previous cakewalks is that National has effectively consumed the votes of its allies, leaving it poised between a slim victory or narrow defeat.
3 The alternative. Is New Zealand ready for a leftof-centre(ish) government made up of Labour, the Greens, New Zealand First and Internet-Mana or some combination of those parties? Will voters accept the party which wins the most seats in the next Parliament by a long shot — National — no longer being a party of government? How will a Labour leader lacking any reservoirs of goodwill built up in Opposition cope with the likely voter backlash if he has no choice but to rule with an inherently unstable governing arrangement?
4 The myth of the ‘missing million’ voters. True, 800,000 or so registered voters failed to make it to a polling booth last time — leading Labour to believe it stands to
benefit hugely if it can get even a portion of these people to vote. However, the better measure is the difference between the non-vote in 2011 and 2008 — an increase of around 180,000. That roughly equates with the number of votes Labour lost between those two elections.
5 The economy, of course. The indicators measuring the health of the economy have been shifting in National’s favour for some time. The books are almost back in surplus. The rather large thorn in National’s otherwise rosy picture is rising interest rates. But the Reserve Bank seems likely to slow down its phased hikes in the official cash rate. Rather than nibbling to no great effect around the edges of National’s success story, Labour is trying to persuade voters National is falling down when it comes to ensuring the recovery is sustained and that major reform is required.
6 The Big Dot-commotion. The election’s wild card. With the electorate becalmed, the Internet Party and the umbrella Internet-Mana movement may struggle to catch the necessary wave to see it pick up the Waiariki seat to add to Hone Harawira’s Te Tai Tokerau electorate. If Labour wins the two other Maori Party-held seats, National will lose a vital support partner.
7 Winston Last. But not least. Going on poll results, which usually underestimate the party’s true level of support, New Zealand First will be back — but not by much. If it fails to beat the 5 per cent threshold, then National might be celebrating victory. But Cunliffe’s shifting of Labour leftwards will have left those voters alienated from Labour feeling even colder and they will stick with Peters.