Controversial jobs data emerges

Amid ongoing political controversy Statistics New Zealand yesterday released its first quarter of jobs data using a new methodology.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent in the June 2016 quarter (from a revised 5.2 per cent in the March quarter), Statistics NZ said.

Compared with the March quarter, 1000 fewer people were jobless.

The official estimate of unemployment is based on people who are both actively seeking work and available to work, as measured in the Household Labour Force Survey.

But the new method of measuring unemployment has been questioned, with Labour finance spokesman Grant Robertson arguing revisions may favour the Government.

He has objected to a change in the measure of joblessness that meant people browsing jobs on websites such as Seek were no longer counted as actively looking for work.

Government statistician Liz MacPherson defended the changes, which have been back-dated so the new data can be compared accurately with figures going back to 2007.

Economists yesterday were broadly comfortable with the new methodology but said it made the latest figures less useful than normal.

The survey changes meant comparisons with preceding periods could not be made, said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley.

“It may take another three quarters for the data to settle down,” Tuffley said.

“In the meantime, the monetary policy significance of the survey will be low.”

Westpac’s Anne Bonniface was also unimpressed.

“Stats NZ was unable to quantify the impact of the change in the questionnaire on the number of people employed in the quarter,” Bonniface said.

However, the latest data appeared “roughly consistent with a wider range of labour market indicators we saw over the June quarter”, she wrote.

“Our underlying view is that we’re continuing to see a continued gradual improvement in the labour market, supported by a backdrop of solid economic growth.

“However, strong growth in the working-age population, along with a subdued inflation backdrop, is keeping a lid on wage pressure.”

Unemployment was down from where it was a year ago (5.5 per cent in the June 2015 quarter), particularly for women, Statistics NZ said.

“Compared with June 2015, there were 8000 fewer unemployed women, and their unemployment rate fell from 6.2 per cent to 5.4 per cent,” said labour and income statistics manager Mark Gordon.

In unadjusted terms, unemployment was down from a year ago across many North Island regions, including Auckland, which had an unemployment rate of 4.7 per cent in the June quarter.

This is the lowest rate for the Auckland region since the September 2008 quarter (when it was 4.1 per cent).

By region unemployment remains the highest in Northland at 10.6 per cent — where it rose 3.1 per cent.

Canterbury retained the lowest rate at 3.2 per cent — despite a slight rise of 0.2 per cent.