Weighing the risks

Worth considering in the Climate Change debate is the pragmatic approach suggested by the Renaissance mathematician and all-round brainbox Blaise Pascal. He advanced probability theory and he’s best known for Pascal’s wager which has resurfaced as risk analysis, much loved by planners and much unloved by doers. In essence, Pascal would ask; if we bet that human induced climate change is real and we take steps to mitigate it and we lose the bet, what is the worst that could happen?

Well, it could mean we’ve ditched our beloved motor cars and reduced the number of dairy cows. On the other hand, if we bet that human induced climate change is not real and do nothing, and we lose the bet, what is the worst thing that could happen?

Well, wars, possibly nuclear, over declining resources, and for us, an invasion of Australian refugees fleeing their overheated continent. It’s likely Pascal would put his money on human induced climate change being real and suggest we do something about it.

Patrick Cotton, Remuera.