Mars mission
Elon Musk’s plans to colonise the red planet
Elon Musk’s Falcon 9 rocket is grounded, after blowing up for a second time. The maiden flight of its more powerful Falcon Heavy has been delayed again and again.
But Musk, never one to shy away from grand pronouncements, introduced SpaceX’s conceptual plans for a rocket and spacecraft designed to start a “self-sustaining city on Mars” that he said could be achieved within 40 to 100 years.
In a speech titled Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species at the International Astronautical Congress in Mexico he said his goal was to “make Mars seem possible. To make it seem like it’s something we can do in our lifetimes. That you can go.”
Musk, the billionaire co-founder of PayPal, who also runs Tesla Motors, knows how to attract attention, and thousands of people packed the conference hall, cheering on his much-hyped, long-anticipated presentation.
Musk stood before a large orb of Mars that morphed into a habitable planet with oceans and greenery. He showed a tantalising video of the rocket taking off from the Kennedy Space Centre in Florida with 100 people on board, refuelling in orbit and then landing on Mars.
The design of the Mars rocket is a towering122 metres tall, far more powerful than the Saturn V that took the Apollo astronauts to the moon. He acknowledged the immense, if quixotic, challenge he was undertaking would begin not just with creating a spacecraft that could keep dozens of people alive for extended periods but with producing rocket fuel from the resources on Mars. He acknowledged the difficulties of lowering the cost of he flights from US$10 billion ($13.8b) a person to US$200,000 or less, in part by re-using rockets.
But less clear was how SpaceX would pay to get to that point, and outside of the technical details of the rocket and spacecraft, he offered few specifics on how a city on Mars would be built.
“In terms of the presentation today, I was particularly keen to learn about [research and development] costs, venture capital and other investments, returns on investments, manufacturing costs, and why and how one sustains a population on Mars,” said Phil Smith, a space analyst at the Tauri group, a consulting firm. “Musk did provide some insight into manufacturing costs, pricing, and sources of funding, but I need to study those to see if they are realistic.”
Musk said he would “make the biggest contribution I can” of his own wealth, and at one point he joked that the company might have to use Kickstarter, the online fundraising platform, to raise money.
He said ultimately it would have to be a “public-private partnership”. NASA is partnering the project, but offering no funds for the first SpaceX mission. NASA has its own plan to get to Mars by the 2030s. Budget limitations could make even the agency’s mission difficult.
Musk has also outlined an incredibly ambitious time line, starting with the first launch of an unmanned craft in 2018. That mission would be on the Falcon Heavy, which has yet to fly. He conceded that he isn’t “always the best” at hitting the aggressive time lines he lays out for his dreams.
Getting to Mars is exceedingly difficult. On average, it’s 225 kilometres from Earth, although the planets come to within about 56m km of each other every 26 months. Even under the best circumstances it takes months to get there. Musk said SpaceX could do it in 80 days and eventually in 30.
The deep space environment is tremendously harsh.
Of the 43 robotic missions to Mars, including flybys, attempted by four countries, only 18 have been total successes
Musk didn’t address the explosion that blew up one of its rockets earlier this month. He has previously said the incident, which occurred while the rocket was being fuelled ahead of an engine test-firing, was the most “difficult and complex” the company has ever faced. It follows a Falcon 9 failure last year, when the rocket blew up a few minutes into flight.
The Falcon 9 remains grounded while the investigation continues, meaning SpaceX’s government and commercial customers must endure yet another costly delay.
Still, while the plan may remain in the realm of science fiction, Musk has reignited interest in space, inspiring another generation of enthusiasts who believe in Musk’s vision. “Musk’s Mars vision, if realised, would be transformational for all humankind,” said Alan Stern, a former NASA official and leader of the New Horizons mission to Pluto. “And given his talents, drive, and many past accomplishments, I wouldn’t bet against him.”
While NASA has not flown people beyond Earth orbit in decades, Musk and the New Space movement he leads has proven that space no longer is the exclusive domain of governments. Several companies are pursuing their own visions of space travel.
Musk said SpaceX’s spacecraft, with its huge windows, would make the trip an adventure. He talked about how the journey has “got to feel fun and exciting. It can’t feel cramped.”
He said there would games passengers could play in zero gravity and a restaurant on board as it sped at 62,634km/h to Mars.