Population tipped at 5m by 2020

New Zealand’s population is predicted to hit 5 million by about 2020.

In the 12 months to June this year the population grew by 97000, its fastest rate since the 1960s.

Statistics NZ senior demographer Kim Dunstan said immigration numbers and population growth had both exceeded their predicted tally.

“Our population was estimated to be 4.69 million at 30 June 2016, with net migration being 69,100 over the June year.”

The latest figures made it likely the population would rise to between 4.9 and 5.1 million by 2020. By 2025 the population could rise by a further half a million to 5.5 million.

Based on an average migration of 30,000 a year and much higher fertility rates, New Zealand Statistics predicts the population could grow to nearly 8 million by 2068.

If there was no migration, the population would peak at 5.3 million around 2050 and then slowly decline.

The projections also show growing numbers of older people in coming decades. The number of people 85 and older will more than triple.

Now at 83,000, the number could rise to 320,000 in the next 30 years.

Those 65 and older will roughly double, from about 700,000 now to between 1.3 and 1.5 million in 2046.

Overall population growth is expected to slow in the longer term as the population ages and the gap between births and deaths narrows.

The rate of population growth may halve to less than 1 per cent in the 2030s.

NZ Statistics said the estimates were not exact forecasts and their purpose was to help with planning.