Trump win or challenge unsettling for markets
As controversy over Donald Trump’s relations with women continues to swirl, his chances of success in next month’s presidential election are looking less likely by the day. Hillary Clinton is ahead in the polls, which will undoubtedly be a relief for financial markets. But JBWere New Zealand investment strategist Bernard Doyle says the US election remains a close race and the possibility of a contested result is another risk investors may be under-estimating. “One of the worst case scenarios is a contested result,” Doyle told Stock Takes. Such a result would cause much uncertainty — and volatility — in markets. “The way that Trump has been behaving, there’s every chance that he will challenge the legitimacy of the result,” Doyle said. He said the legal and constitutional framework in the United States was “surprisingly flimsy” when it came to dealing with contested election outcomes. JBWere is forecasting a 5 to 10 per cent “global equity pullback” in the event of a surprise Trump win. Doyle said the local sharemarket could be insulated, to some extent, from the fallout. But it would be far from immune, he said.