Rise and fall of populist politics
Italian PM rocked by result as Austria rejects far-right candidate
Europe’s embattled political establishment has lost another round in its effort to thwart the anti-elite movement, as Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned following a voter rejection of his constitutional reforms. But a centre-left presidential candidate in Austria handily defeated his far-right challenger.
The thorough rejection of Renzi’s efforts to streamline lawmaking was a significant boost for the country’s surging anti-establishment forces just weeks after Donald Trump prevailed in the United States. Renzi’s loss also risked unleashing financial upheaval in Europe’s third-largest economy, as Italy’s weak banks struggle to contain the fallout.
But the surprisingly strong presidential victory in Austria for a centreleft elder statesman suggested that there were still some limits to a wave of anti-elite anger that began with British vote to leave the European Union and continued with Trump last month.
A populist takeover of Italy is still an uncertain prospect, since Renzi’s centre-left Democratic Party remains in control of the Parliament and national elections do not have to be called until 2018. But much will depend on the makeup of the next government and how the antiimmigrant, eurosceptic parties capitalise on their success.
“I have not managed to reach victory,” Renzi said yesterday, conceding defeat at the Palazzo Chigi, his official residence. “My Government ends today.”
The lead opposition to Renzi, the insurgent Five Star movement, ran a spirited campaign against the Prime Minister’s reforms, joining forces with an unlikely cross-section of allies, including some in Renzi’s own party. Many establishment politicians also questioned whether the reforms truly made sense as the country contends with grim prospects for growth and a wave of migration from Africa.
What comes next will depend partially on Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who is charged with picking a new person to try to form a government and whether to hold early elections. Elections are a key demand from the Five Star movement, which is running a close second to Renzi’s party in the polls.
Renzi’s anti-establishment opponents were trying to capitalise on a wave of scepticism about the ability of elites to deal with globalisation and the long, painful effects of the economic crisis that started nearly a decade ago.
The Trump victory last month cheered the Five Star Movement, an insurgent anti-euro force that has support on the left and the right and is led by the caustic comedian Beppe Grillo.
Italians were technically just giving an up-down nod to the restructuring package. But the referendum to streamline the political system and diminish the role of the Senate long ago turned into a broader vote of confidence in Renzi, the youthful, Coke-chugging leader who portrayed himself as a lone warrior against Eurosceptic forces.
Yesterday’s votes in Austria and Italy captured the extent to which Europeans are as politically polarised as Americans, split on issues including immigration and free trade.
In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer conceded defeat on his Facebook page less than 30 minutes after polls closed and following projections showing a surprisingly strong lead for Alexander Van der Bellen. The 72-year-old statesman and former Green Party politician was winning by 53.3 per cent to 46.7 percent with nearly 100 per cent of the votes counted.
The result was an unexpectedly clear victory for Austria’s beleaguered political establishment — one suggesting the aggressive tactics and Trump-style campaign deployed by the Austrian far-right may have hurt more than they helped.
Sunday’s election, in fact, was a rerun of one in May in which Hofer lost by 31,000 votes, a result he successfully contested. His defeat yesterday by a far larger margin, observers said, may suggest European voters’ unease with the comparisons of their politicians to Trump. It also seemed to rob the momentum from far-right leaders in France and the Netherlands who have called Trump’s victory part of a new “world order” that they were hoping to join in elections next year.
Following Hofer’s concession, he and Van der Bellen exchanged a long handshake for photographers in the Vienna studios of Austrian state broadcaster ORF.
Van der Bellen credited his victory to a “broad movement” backing “freedom, equality and solidarity”.
His campaign manager, Lothar Lockl, saw the margin as evidence of a push against the nationalist tide. “A movement could be evolving here, which is not only for Austria, but can also bring about a change of attitude in the whole of Europe,” he said.
The race for the ceremonial role as president held high stakes. The position is constitutionally ambiguous, yet Hofer, who has decried Muslim immigration and free trade, had vowed to beef it up — setting up a clash with the centre-left Government and the European Union. Freedom Party supporters had hoped for a “Trump bump” — but it bumped the wrong way.
“The Trump bump could always go either way,” said Reinhard Heinisch, a political scientist at the University of Salzburg. “The fact is, Trump is not very popular in Austria.”
The race was perhaps more important as a bellwether of post-Trump voter trends in Europe, where nationalists are poised to stage potent 2017 campaigns in France, Germany and the Netherlands.