The Insider

Slow burner

Not much public attention has been given to the reorganisation of the Fire Service — and even less to how it will be funded. In select committee, MPs have agreed with the Government’s suggested levy (paid on property insurance) to be the principal source of funding for the new Fire and Emergency Service. The Fire and Emergency New Zealand Bill would allow the levy to be broadened to include insurance for material damage as well as fire damage. Warning bells are ringing in some circles because the levy would increase substantially in some cases, and those insuring expensive assets could be hit very hard. One problem is that the way the levy will work is to be set out in regulations which have yet to be seen. Some are predicting that many who are hit hardest by cost increases will decide traditional insurance is just not worth it — meaning less money for the Fire Service.

Hot bet

Free and open markets may not be the answer to all the world’s problems, but they often shine a light on some of the more difficult issues. For instance, insurance companies are becoming increasingly wary of covering the effects of climate change, most notably rising sea levels. That has made it harder to get insurance, not only for private property owners, but also for councils and governments seeking to cover infrastructure. Some people are are sceptical about climate change models, which suggests they are missing a market opportunity. If the science is wrong, the sceptics could make vast profits by offering cover for events which they are sure will never happen. Anyone willing to put their money where their mouth is?

Trading places

There has been much talk about the possibility of trade deals with Britain and the European Union. The noise from the tops of the political pyramids has been encouraging, but trade negotiators in this country are not quite as optimistic about quick progress. The main problem is that negotiating resources in the UK are minimal and already overstretched just dealing with the EU exit and potential trade talks with the US. In November 2016, Britain exported £75 million ($129m) worth of goods to New Zealand. In the same month, it exported £14,112m to the EU. So, it is easy to see where the priorities might lie. The EU has better resources, but has to deal with the UK first and its member countries have differing views over any deal with an agricultural exporter such as New Zealand. It could all take many years, and some negotiators argue that effort should go into breathing life back into the TPPA, even minus the US, just to get better access around the Pacific rim.

Staying away

Prime Minister Bill English’s distaste for events at Waitangi goes back a long way. He was a fairly new MP when he experienced then GovernorGeneral Dame Catherine Tizard and others, including diplomats, being assaulted and spat on by protesters. The event left a lingering bad taste in the mouths of many there at the time and English has always been dubious about the event since then, despite his posturing about Helen Clark refusing to attend when he was Opposition Leader.

Less haste

Gossip in political circles has been tossing around the chances of an early election. All parties’ management teams have been put on notice to be ready, just in case. One sign before Christmas was a select committee rushing through two bills changing electoral law. The changes are mostly minor (for instance, ending the statutory election broadcasts and giving the money to parties to spend how they want), but they are ready to pass into law very quickly when Parliament sits next month. Many in National are reluctant to go early. For a start, it reduces the potential time in power. There are also those who hope that more time will allow the political sideshows offered by another Kim Dotcom attempt at power and Gareth Morgan’s party to get a bit of steam; it will almost certainly help National. Calls from Opposition parties to call an election because Bill English has no mandate have gone quiet over the summer period. If they start again, English may well recall how he demanded an early election in 2002, and what happened to National then.