Immigration flows reach fresh record
The big migration trend, which underpins New Zealand’s strong economic growth, shows no sign of letting up.
Numbers for the year to January 31 showed a net migration gain of 71,300. That’s a record for a 12-month period and the first time in New Zealand’s history the gain has topped 71,000.
It is also, as ASB economist Daniel Snowden points out, a new monthly record, with 6460 net arrivals (seasonally adjusted).
January was the fifth consecutive month above 6000.
Immigration looks set to be a key election issue with the opposition parties having highlighted the affect new arrivals may be having on house prices and other key infrastructure areas such as roads and schools.
The Government, along with many economists, argue strong immigration flows are a measure of the country’s success and contribute positively to the wider economy. The economy is growing at 3 per cent a year and is expected to accelerate. However, on a per capita basis (accounting for the big population gain) growth is more like 1 per cent. A New Zealand Initiative report released last month concluded that “economic worries about immigration are overblown”. It argued that migrants’ influence on house prices and unemployment are marginal, while the value they add to the Government accounts is, on average, greater than that of citizens.
However, the report did note that a rapid population gain was putting the squeeze on infrastructure, such as roads and schools, and creating shortterm costs.
It has also been pointed out that much of the net gain is being driven by New Zealand citizens returning home after living overseas.
But as ASB’s Snowden notes: “Returning Kiwis were not the main driver this month, with a net 385 NZ citizens actually leaving the country.
“This is in contrast to recent months, where returning New Zealanders were a key driver of rising net migration. However, the slack was taken up by Australian citizens, with a net 633 people choosing NZ over Australia.”
The biggest changes in arrivals were from China (up 13,200), the United States (up 5200) and Australia (up 5200).
Immigration looked set to be a key issue for election year, said Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod.
The public concern about housing costs was not abating, he said, and the Government plan to resolve the issue by building additional houses could take a long time to work.
“We expect net migration inflows to remain strong for some time, with NZ’s positive economic story, including its labour market, making us a very attractive destination.”