Dutch vote new EU test

Geert Wilders hopes to gain power with an anti-Muslim message.

Nervous leaders across Europe are looking to tomorrow’s election in the Netherlands for clues.

Elections are also to be held this year in France and Germany and anti-Islam, antiEuropean Union candidates there also are capitalising on fears about a wave of mostly Muslim refugees and migrants.

Even if anti-immigration candidate Geert Wilders is barred from power in the Netherlands by the wide range of parties that are refusing to cooperate with him, he already has tugged his nation’s political discourse towards a far harder line on immigrants. Anxious to capture Wilders voters, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said this year that immigrants needed to work harder to fit into Dutch society or they should leave — a stark departure from a Dutch tradition of acceptance.

Wilders started the year with 20 per cent support in the polls. His appeal was only enhanced by a December criminal conviction for inciting discrimination against Dutch Moroccans. “It’s ammunition for his populist argument that there is an elite that doesn’t listen to the concerns of ordinary citizens,” said Matthijs Rooduijn, an expert on populist parties at Utrecht University.

Wilders has since slumped to second place.

His participation in govern- ing the Netherlands would not be unprecedented — he was a member of a ruling coalition from 2010 until 2012 — but in an era of rising euroscepticism, his most radical messages have powerful new traction.

Most observers expect that Wilders will not take part in any coalition following the election, forcing mainstream parties to form a broad and weak alliance to muster a majority in Parliament. If it fails, Wilders may be the long-term beneficiary.