WHO’S COMING TO NZ?

A rise in work visas has been the driving force behind record immigration numbers — but the main source countries are not from Asia. The top five source countries for work visas last year were the UK, Germany, Australia, South Africa and the US. There's a

Arise in work visas has been the driving force behind record immigration numbers but the main source countries are not from Asia. A Herald analysis into immigration data found work visa arrivals increased from 16,787 in 2004 to 41,576 last year.

The top five source countries for work visas last year were Britain, Germany, Australia, South Africa and the United States.

Britain, which made up 16.6 per cent of work visas issued, has twice as many as those of Germany (8.8).

Figures to be released today by Statistics New Zealand are expected to again show strong population gains, and possibly a sixth straight month of net migration gains exceeding 6000.

The gain in the year to February 28 hit a record high of 71,333.

The Government last week signalled its intention to tighten immigration, focusing on changes in the work visa skilled-migrant category.

Excluding New Zealand and Australian citizens, most arrivals in the year to February (43,025) were on work visas.

Of the total 128,816 arrivals, 16,833 had residence visas, 23,846 student visas, 6338 visitors and 694 others.

China and India are among the biggest source countries for permanent residents, but are not among the top five for direct migrant workers.

Massey University sociologist Professor Paul Spoonley said migrants from Asian countries were less likely to get direct access to New Zealand on a skilled-work visa.

“They are more likely to transition to permanent residence through temporary work and study visa routes using options such as the transition to work provisions,” said Spoonley, an expert on immigration.

We are starting to see the effects of Brexit and the Trump presidency as push factors. Professor Paul Spoonley Massey University

“Given the penetration, and now ownership, by Australians of industries and companies, a significant component of Australian migration to New Zealand will involve middle and senior managers, as well as certain experts, for these companies.”

One source which has seen a huge increase in work visas is South Africa, rising from 2.5 per cent in 2004 to 5.5 per cent last year.

“The South African arrivals remain cyclical and the numbers arriving will reflect certain push factors as well as the fact that there is now a wellsettled local community.”

Between 2004 and last year, work visas from the Philippines rose from 0.4 per cent to 4.5 per cent, or from 71 to 1871. In the same period, Chinese arriving on work visas increased from 312 in 2004 to 1697.

“Filipino workers are filling important niches in the New Zealand labour market, including in the health and farming sectors, especially dairying,” Spoonley said.

But he said recent changes to immigration policy, including the sus- pension of the parent visa category, would likely reduce the numbers coming from Asian countries including China, India and the Philippines.

In the year to February, the num-

ber of Indian student visa arrivals had already dropped by 38 per cent.

On the rise, however, are arrivals from Britain and the US. Also, as a proportion, work visas for Germans have increased from 3.1 per cent of the total in 2004.

“My guess is that we are starting to see the effects of Brexit and the Trump presidency as push factors.

“There was an early hint of a new interest from these two countries in the expressions of interest figures post the Brexit vote and the confirmation of Trump as President . . . they might displace arrivals from Asia if this upward trend continues.”

Spoonley said high-value immigrants from Britain and US would remain an important source of skilled migrants, and expected the numbers to trend upwards through the mid and later part of 2017.

The increase in work visas pushed net migration to a record 70,588 last year. Migrant arrivals numbered 127,305, compared with 56,717 people leaving the country.

During the period, work visas were up 3817 to 41,576, but this was matched by a similar drop in those arriving on student visas.

Britain provided the largest group of visitors planning to work here, nearly 7000, followed by France, Germany and Australia.

In March ASB Bank had forecast net migration would hit 72,000 in the year to March 31, and the annual gain would continue to top 70,000 until the second half of next year. Drivers of net migration include 9000 more Kiwis returning home and 28,000 fewer leaving since 2012.

There’s also been a rise in the number of Australians arriving, and more working holiday visa holders.

International student arrivals dipped in the year to February, but are up 7000 overall since 2012.

New Zealand’s population is estimated to be about 4.77 million, according to Statistics New Zealand, and growth rates at this level would increase it to 5 million in 2019.

Recent moves by the Government to tighten immigration policy include boosting required points, toughening English language rules and suspending the parent category.

Last week it announced migrants will need to earn more than $49,000 to qualify for the skilled migrant visa.

Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse said the changes were aimed at increasing the quality of migrants, not reducing numbers.