The West’s new divide

Ever since Donald Trump proved last November that anything is possible in the topsy-turvy new world of Western politics, today has been circled on European calendars with a mix of anticipation and dread.

To right-wing populists, the presidential election in France seemed to offer the next big opportunity to remake the postwar global order in their own nationalist, nativist and protectionist image. To the mainstream, it looked like a possible third strike after Trump and Brexit.

But indicators suggest that the populist wave is likely to bypass Gallic shores. In final pre-election polling, independent centrist Emmanuel Macron held an advantage of about 25 points over far-right challenger Marine Le Pen. “Her chances are very weak,” said Olivier Rouquan, a political analyst at Pantheon-Assas II University.

A Le Pen loss would hardly be a knockout blow for populism or a ringing vindication of the establishment. If anything, the French campaign has solidified the new fracture lines in modern politics, which bear little relation to the old left-right divide. The profound new chasm in the West is between those who favour open, globalised societies and others who prefer closed, nationalised ones.

“What we’re seeing is historic: a choice between two completely different modes of organising a society,” said Madani Cheurfa, a professor of politics at Paris’s Sciences Po. “France has managed to encapsulate . . . the debate underway across the world.”