The attack in London brings a horrible case of deja vu
A third in three months is a huge blow even for Britons who pride themselves on a ‘get on with life' resilience Tories favourites thanks to ‘grey vote’
News of a terrorist attack on London Bridge feels like the most horrific case of deja vu. Witnesses reported seeing a van hitting pedestrians and people with stab wounds, armed police swarming the scene and at nearby Borough Market. Six people were confirmed killed and three attackers shot dead.
Just in March, an attacker drove a car into pedestrians on pavement along Westminster Bridge killing four and injuring more than 50 people. A policeman was also stabbed to death.
Early reports suggest a difference this time — several attackers rather than just one.
Britain is also still recovering from the suicide bombing at Manchester Arena last month, where Salman Abedi killed himself and 22 adults and children.
The Government briefly raised and then lowered its terror alert level amid widespread police raids and arrests.
Scarily, this latest attack has occurred while police have been on high alert, carrying out that hunt, and was carried out by a group rather than a lone wolf.
Three major attacks in under three months is a huge blow even for a populace that prides itself on a ‘ get on with life’ resilience.
Both the latest terror attack and the Manchester bombing have landed smack in the British election campaign, with voting starting Thursday night NZT. There are also wider implications. The new attack in London also follows two major attacks in Baghdad, Iraq, and three in Kabul, Afghanistan, which have coincided with the start of Ramadan, the 30-day period of fasting and prayer.
Late in May, Isis ( Islamic State) called on supporters to wage “all-out war” on the West during Ramadan with new terror attacks. Isis has used the start of Ramadan before to call for attacks — previous statements were linked to attacks in Orlando and France.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Isis is behind the London attack. Assigning blame for attacks is difficult. There are various militant groups in Afghanistan and Iraq, aside from Isis. There’s a difference between an attack being centrally organised by Isis and carried out by a cell to attacks ‘ inspired’ by Isis or foreign events.
The previous attacks in the UK this year have involved homegrown Britons, perhaps inspired by outside events and groups. Isis claimed the Manchester attack, but that does not mean the group was directly involved in organising it. Police have said Abedi seems to have mostly carried out the attack on his own.
However, analysts have warned for a long time that as Isis is squeezed by military setbacks in the Middle East and as European fighters return home, the group would try to lift flagging momentum with high-profile attacks.
Isis also faces fresh competition from al-Qaeda, intent on a comeback by pushing forward a son of former leader Osama bin Laden to win back younger extremists from Isis. Hamza bin Laden called for strikes against ‘Jews’ and ‘Crusaders’ 10 days before the Manchester bombing.
The use of vehicles in terror attacks in popular city areas — also a feature of strikes in Paris, Nice and Berlin — is a constant threat. It will When Theresa May announced the snap election in mid-April, most expected a dull campaign and a foregone conclusion. The British Prime Minister had strong approval ratings and the Conservative Party had a huge lead over the Labour opposition.
The election looked like an easy way for the Tories to lock in their advantages over a weak opponent.
We should have known better. As the great political philosopher and boxer “Iron” Mike Tyson once observed: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. Labour support has surged in the polls, rising by around eight points in the polling average.
The Conservatives have held on to most of their own earlier poll surge, achieved mainly through the mass defection of 2015 Ukip voters, but the gap has closed sharply. A lead of over 20 points has halved to under 10, with a lot of disagreement between not go away until more of these areas, attracting large crowds, are pedestrianised and protected from vehicles by large security bollards.
US President Donald Trump responded to London by opportunistically arguing in favour of his long-stymied travel ban. He tweeted: “We need to be smart, vigilant and tough. We need the courts to give us back our rights. We need pollsters. Some polls and projections now suggest May could even end up losing ground this week.
The smaller parties have been left behind as two-party politics returns with a vengeance. The hopes of the Liberal Democrats for a “Remain surge” have turned to dust. Ukip support has collapsed and is on the brink of extinction. Support for the Green party has halved. Voters have not consolidated behind the big two like this for more than a generation.
Believers in the Labour surge can point to the broader polling evidence — it is not just Labour’s headline support that has improved but Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership ratings have also risen sharply while May’s are down. Labour’s ratings on the issues have also improved, while pollsters suggest that the Tories’ very unpopular “dementia tax” social care proposal is the main policy to have the Travel Ban as an extra level of safety!” The Trump Administration has asked the US Supreme Court to reinstate its ban on travellers from six mostly Muslim countries and refugees. Courts have blocked it. Trump also tweeted: “Whatever the United States can do to help out in London and the U.K., we will be there — WE ARE WITH YOU. GOD BLESS!”
After Manchester, terrorism spiked “cut through” with voters.
Surge sceptics can also build a convincing case. Labour’s rise in the polls has been concentrated in demographics — in particular, younger voters and former nonvoters — who tend to turn out at low levels but are now apparently very keen to vote. The Tories continue to win the other side of the generation game, with a huge and stable lead among pensioners.
Judgments of the Labour surge hinge very strongly on whether the traditional “grey advantage” in turnout is reduced this time. There are two reasons to think it won’t be: the historical record and the record of the polls. Large generation gaps in turnout have been recorded in all the recent British elections, including the EU and Scottish referendums. Pollsters also have a longstanding tendency to overstate Labour support and understate Tory support — a pattern that has held in every election but one since 1987.
— Observer as an issue in the British election campaign, with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn linking attacks to British foreign policy. He was accused by Tory opponents of “justifying” terrorism. Old pictures of Corbyn with Sinn Fein members featured in the British press.
Conventional logic would have expected Prime Minister Theresa May to benefit with a boost in support after Manchester, but the general polling trend has been towards a tightening between the two main parties.
May began the campaign with an imposing lead of up to 20-points but that was down to an average of 8-9 points last week. Both main parties have drawn supporters away from the minor parties.
Yesterday’s polls showed the Conservatives ahead by a range of 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 and 12. Pollsters weight data according to key factors, including whether there is a ‘shy’ Tory vote and whether Labour can inspire a high turnout among young voters.
Will three attacks in a short space of time tip undecideds towards May, a former Home Secretary used to dealing with security, in the final days?
Corbyn is an unconventional prime ministerial prospect on security and foreign policy, and that makes the next few days politically uncertain. A more traditional potential leader than Corbyn could have clung closer to May on security. Then again, could Corbyn benefit from a desire to shake things up? Does the attack make May’s ‘ strong and stable’ campaign pitch seem hollow? Or will there be a phlegmatic, ‘there’s nothing that can be done if someone’s crazy enough’ attitude?
A slight rallying-around-the-leader or ‘now’s not the time to change’ effect is more likely. It is hard to believe there won’t be an accumulative impact from three attacks, especially with the latest one closely resembling the March massacre. It was a tragic case of here we go again.— NZ Herald