Trump should not take bait on N Korea
Donald Trump needs to be assured that no sane person in the world will hold it against him if he fails to deal with North Korea. It is not the test of his presidency. Though he has declared his determination to see that North Korea does not acquire a long-range nuclear capability, he is going the wrong way about it. The paranoid regime in Pyongyang has increased its missile testing in response to bellicose tweets from Trump and this week the United States confirmed the latest test was indeed an intercontinental ballistic weapon.
In response, the US and South Korean forces fired “deep strike” precision missiles into South Korean water intended to demonstrate their “solidarity”, according to a statement issued by the US Eighth Army. South Korea and Japan have reason to be worried. They have been living within reach of the North’s missiles for decades but the new element in the equation is Trump.
His first move on North Korea was sound, urging China to use its leverage on Kim Jong Un. But that quest seems to have failed. Trump has begun expressing doubt that China is up to the task. Wise heads in Washington are now taking new diplomatic initiatives. At the United Nations, US Ambassador Nikki Haley asked for an urgent meeting of the Security Council overnight with Japan and South Korea attending. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was talking of enforcing sanctions.
“Global action is required to stop a global threat,” he said. “Any country that hosts North Korean guest workers, provides any economic or military benefits or fails to fully implement UN Security Council resolutions is aiding and abetting a dangerous regime.”
He added, “The US will never accept a nucleararmed North Korea.”
When Kim Jong Un and his general hear that last statement it probably heightens their paranoia and lends greater urgency to their determination to develop a nuclear deterrent. They already have nuclear weapons, they are trying to develop missiles large enough and warheads small enough, to reach the US mainland. Their self-isolation may be mad but their tactics are not. It suits their purpose to have their population live in fear of the West and it does no good for Western powers to play the part ascribed to them.
Last week, when hosting South Korea’s president at the White House, Trump said, “the era of strategic patience with the North Korean regime has failed”. It has not failed. “Strategic patience”, meaning the US garrisons South Korea without over-reacting to provocations from the North, has kept the region reasonably secure for more than half a century. It is hard to see what a more confrontational policy would achieve.
The countries that should be taking the lead in deciding the West’s appropriate response to North Korea are South Korea and Japan.
South Koreans have long been divided on whether US forces on the peninsula make them safer. The so-called demilitarised zone is a place of comic posturing. The North is testing Trump with these missile tests. If he is big enough he will not take the bait.