National wins democracy loses in poll

The biggest winner in our first election year poll is National. No surprises there. But the biggest loser — and more disturbing long term concern — appears to be public engagement in democracy. The new Herald-ZB Kantar TNS survey began by asking voters; “Who do you think is most capable of running the Government?” National leader Bill English recorded 41 per cent support, streets ahead of Labour’s Andrew Little on 10 per cent and NZ First’s Winston Peters on 9 per cent. No one else made an impact, although The Opportunities Party leader Gareth Morgan got off to a promising start at 2 per cent, level with the Greens, and above the Maori Party, Act and United Future.

Forty-one per cent think the country is going in the right direction, 32 per cent disagree and 27 per cent are not sure. Voters are almost evenly split on who National should choose as a coalition partner, assuming it wins the most votes but still cannot govern alone. Current support partners United Future, Act and the Maori Party get 25 per cent support, compared to 24 per cent for NZ First and 17 per cent for the Greens.

The survey reinforces the popular belief that the September election is National’s to lose but the party may face an uncomfortable coalition deal with NZ First to gain a majority in Parliament. Public confidence in English looks high, possibly because the poll question plays to his strengths as an economic manager, but National will be relieved to see more evidence it has weathered the transition from John Key’s leadership so well.

Meanwhile coalition preferences for National follow predictable party lines. National supporters desperately want to see a continuation of the Maori Party-United Future-Act support network, even though most polls suggest this is a forlorn hope. Labour voters naturally favour the Greens as a brake on National but their voices may not count unless both parties can gain a new lease of life in the next nine weeks. NZ First voters overwhelmingly back their man, who looks better placed than ever to name his price after election day.

Unlike some polls, the online survey does not exclude “don’t knows” which add up to a worrying 31 per cent on the party leader question. Specifically, 14 per cent replied “None of these” and 17 per cent said “Not sure”. Both responses outranked Little and Peters. Indecision was particularly high among women (22 per cent) and younger people — 22 per cent among 18 to 29-year-olds (38 per cent when combined with “None of these”) and 24 per cent for 30 to 39-year-olds (42 per cent combined).

Unlike traditional phone polls, online surveys do not push people to make a decision. This has sometimes been portrayed as a weakness — on election day, it is argued, you will have to decide, so the “don’t knows” are urged to declare a preference. Falling voter turnout (almost a million people did not vote in 2014) suggests this thinking is flawed. When about 40 per cent of potential voters under 40 cannot name anyone they trust to run the country two months out from an election, it suggests that many have lost faith in the system and are unlikely to vote. Our political leaders need to give them a good reason to think again.