US travel industry dumps ‘Trump slump’ fears
Last winter, the US tourism industry fretted that Trump administration policies might lead to a “Trump slump” in travel. But those fears may have been premature. International arrivals and travel-related spending are up this year, compared with the same period in 2016.
There might even be a “Trump bump,” says Roger Dow, chief executive of the US Travel Association, an industry group.
A few months ago, Dow and others warned that President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and ban on travel from some mostly Muslim countries could send an antitourism message.
But “impending doom hasn’t manifested itself,” says Dow. “It’s contrary to everything we’ve heard, but travel is in slightly better shape than it was a year ago. Everyone wants me to tell the story of the sky is falling, but for the travel industry, the sky is not falling.”
Latest numbers from the US Travel Association’s Travel Trends Index showed 6.6 per cent growth in international travel to the US in April and 5 per cent growth in May compared with the same months last year.
Individual sectors have good news, too. Hotel occupancy for the first five months of this year was “higher than it has ever been before,” says Jan Freitag, senior vice president with STR, which tracks hotel industry data.
Even New York’s National September 11 Memorial and Museum has more international visitors: 554,381 up to July 11, up from 517,539 in the same period last year.
Companies that track online behaviour say searches for US travel are down. Yet tour companies that bring in foreigners are “not only holding year over year, but in many cases they’re having a record year,” says Chris Thompson, chief executive of Brand USA, which markets the US to the world.
Thompson thinks it’s “too early to tell” how the industry will fare, adding that the travel industry’s ups and downs may have “little or nothing to do” with Trump and more to do with the strong dollar and lacklustre economies elsewhere.
Asked if there is a “Trump slump” in travel to the 12 Southern states marketed by Travel South USA, chief executive Liz Bittner says, “the truth of the matter is no. I think it was a lot of media hype.” Bittner agrees that the challenge for US tourism “isn’t so much Trump. It’s the strong US dollar against some of the other currencies,” which makes the U.S. an expensive destination for foreigners.
Isabelle Bornemann, owner of Alaska Travel Connections, says her international group bookings are down 30 per cent, mainly because of the strong dollar. But some European travel agencies tell Bornemann the decision to stay away is political, based on the perception that foreigners aren’t welcome in the US.
Charlie Mallar, owner of the 1785 Inn in Conway, New Hampshire, had his busiest July 4th weekend in 34 years, but says “foreign visitors were off a bit — Trump effect. We have to assure foreign visitors that they are welcome in America.”
The Travel Trends Index predicts slower growth for the rest of 2017, but still nearly 2 per cent higher than last year through November.
New York City’s tourism agency, NYC & Company, predicts that 300,000 fewer international travellers will visit the city this year than last, says spokesman Chris Heywood.
Concerns about Trump administration policies include “rhetoric surrounding the travel ban, laptop bans on certain airline carriers and the threat of having visitors reveal social media accounts,” along with “the lack of a proactive welcome message on behalf of the nation,” Heywood says.
New York has put up its own messages with signs saying “New York City — Welcoming the World” in Britain, Germany, Mexico and Canada.
Comprehensive international arrivals data from the US Commerce Department takes seven months to compile, so it will be next year before definitive 2017 statistics are available.
However the Commerce Department has seen a 5 per cent increase in January-March, over the same period last year, in collections from ESTA fees, which are electronic travel authorisation fees paid by foreigners who don’t need visas to enter the US. That suggests more visitors from visa-waiver countries such as Britain, Japan, Germany and Australia.