Robots not about to take all jobs
The fear that robots, or more generally smart software, will put us all out of work is one of the dominant economic memes of our time. But that fear is misplaced. We’re unlikely to see mass unemployment; rather, workers will shift into new economic sectors — albeit with transition pains — as has always been the case.
The real risk is that the robots will push too many of us into less socially productive jobs — especially those in marketing.
Let’s consider the ATM. Contrary to what many people think, the widespread adoption of automated teller machines in the 1990s didn’t significantly diminish the demand for bank tellers. ATMs made bank branches easier and cheaper to operate, and that led banks to hire more staff, including tellers.
These tellers play a smaller role in counting cash and handling deposits than before, so what are they doing instead?
Economist James Bessen explained: “Their ability to market and their interpersonal skills in terms of dealing with bank clients has become more important. So the transition — what the ATM machine did was effectively change the job of the bank teller into one where they are more of a marketing person. They are part of what banks call the ‘customer relationship team’.”
More legal work is also done by smart software, but cultivating client relationships is more important than ever. Some functions of medical assistants are being automated, but hospitals and doctors still try to improve the patient experience and reach new customers. Amazon warehouses use robots to heft goods, but someone has to persuade folks to buy.
Machines and software are often good at “making stuff” and can be at delivering well-defined services. But they are not effective at persuading, at developing advertising campaigns, at branding products or corporations, or at greeting you in a charming manner, as is done often in restaurants. Those activities will remain the province of humans for a long time. How much is this shift of labour into marketing a step forward? To be sure, a lot of commercial persuasion is useful. Marketing informs consumers about new products and their properties, or convinces them that one product is better for them than another. That said, a lot of marketing is a zero or negative-sum game. As workers shift from serving tables to greeting customers, many diners will feel a little more welcome. Going to the bank will also be a more fun experience, as tellers who used to count cash are now trained to sell us on how the bank is managing our savings. Don’t be surprised if you see a lot of robots in daily life, and in news stories, but not huge productivity gains. That’s exactly the US economy right now.