Investors’ eyes on opinion polls
Investors will be keeping a close eye on the next opinion polls after news that Jacinda Ardern has replaced Andrew Little as the new leader of the opposition Labour Party.
Little yesterday announced he was stepping down after the latest poll results ahead of the September 23 election.
“As leader, I must take responsibility for these results. I do take responsibility and believe that Labour must have an opportunity to perform better under new leadership through to the election.”
The two most influential political polls were published on Sunday and Monday and both showed support for Labour falling to 24 per cent, 1 percentage point below its 2014 election party vote.
The Newshub- Reid Research poll broadcast on Monday evening showed National down 2.2 points at 45 per cent, while the TVNZ Colmar-Brunton poll revealed on Sunday evening showed National steady at 47 per cent.
The election is expected to be tight and although National is ahead, it may have to rely on NZ First, led by Winston Peters, to form a Government.
Labour, which has an agreement with the Green Party, would also have to rely on Peters if they were able to garner enough votes.
The Greens yesterday said they were committed to working with Labour to change the Government next month.
“I am really unsure how it will play out from here,” said AMP Capital New Zealand managing director Grant Hassell. Overall, “it does look a little chaotic this close to an election”, he said.
But he noted there was no market reaction to Little’s announcement. He said a key factor would be whether NZ First gained support.
Matthew Goodson, managing director at Salt Funds Management in Auckland, said the next polls would be key to gauging the impact and what “permutations and combinations we can see”, in terms of which parties can form a government.
Goodson said the market had paid little attention to the looming election. However, “if it does pay attention, it will pay attention in a hurry”.
The best outcome for markets would be a continuation of the current National-led coalition, he said.
He also noted there had been experience in the past of NZ First being part of coalition where policy had continued on a relatively steady path.
However, if the polls pointed to a more unexpected combination of a Labour-NZ First-Green Party coalition then markets would start to get nervous, Goodson said.