Labour surge in latest poll results

The Labour Party has soared to 33 per cent under new leader Jacinda Ardern in a new poll while the embattled Green Party's popularity has plummeted.

The result from the Newshub-Reid Research poll follows an extraordinary month in politics in which Jacinda Ardern took over as Labour leader, and Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei succumbed to intense pressure to resign.

Compared with a poll nine days ago, Labour has risen from 24.1 per cent to 33.1 per cent, while the Greens have fallen from 13 per cent to 8.3 per cent. National is only slightly down 0.8 percentage points to 44.4 per cent.

New Zealand First drops 3.8 points to 9.2 per cent — pushing the Greens out of position to become the third most popular party and still holding the balance of power.

For preferred prime minister, Ardern increased a stunning 17.6 percentage points to 26.3 per cent. That is not far behind Bill English who has edged up 1.9 points to 27.7 per cent.

Winston Peters has dropped 1.9 points to 10 per cent.

Of the minor parties, Gareth Morgan's The Opportunities Party is on 2 per cent (no change), with the Maori Party up slightly to 1.5 per cent. Act is 0.6 per cent and United Future 0.1 per cent.

Translated to seats in Parliament, National on 55 cannot form a coalition government with its support partners. Neither can Labour (41 seats) with the support of the Greens (10) — New Zealand First holds the bal- ance of power with 11 seats.

National's campaign chair Steven Joyce said Labour's huge gain in the poll wasn't a great surprise. “You saw the numbers coming off both New Zealand First and the Greens.”

Ardern said the poll results were heartening, “but we're not going to be resting on our laurels”.

The Herald can also reveal leaked results from the latest UMR poll, which finished yesterday. That shows Labour has surged from 23 per cent a fortnight ago to 36 per cent. Support for the Green Party collapsed from 15 per cent to 8 per cent. New Zealand First dropped from 16 to 8 per cent. National went up slightly to 43 per cent.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll, from August 2 to yesterday, has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.