Next days will show if Jacinda train is unstoppable
Imagine for a moment a crowded platform of would-be travellers, waiting for a glimpse of the train they hope is coming down the track. Only recently the platform was empty. The trains did not need to run. No one was looking to go anywhere. Life was set to go on as usual. A humdrum existence, but that was the way it had to be. Stable and steady. Sometimes they yearned for more.
Then, without warning, they hear the sound of a whistle in the distance. Not just a whistle, a prolonged blast. A train is coming.
Something snaps. The possibility of going somewhere new suddenly sounds possible. Pent up hopes rise to the surface and an exodus to the station begins.
This scene captures where we are at with the election. A nation that had come to believe that there was no alternative to the state of affairs they had grown used to, woke with a jolt to new possibilities when Jacinda Ardern became the leader of the Labour Party.
To return to the train story, the people on the platform do not have a clear view of the train coming down the tracks but they are sharing among themselves what they want it to offer. They like the look of the train as it comes into view. Their enthusiasm builds and excitement ripples out (via social media) ensuring more people rush to join in.
With the election under three weeks away, the number of people wanting to support Ardern continues to grow. The crowd is now feeding off itself. The momentum is building.
Unless. If the crowd gets to see what is on offer close-up and begins to doubt that it can really take them somewhere better the enthusiasm might fade. The election campaign is now in the phase when policies are being scrutinised. Detail is expected.
Although televised debates seldom define an election, there have been occasions when a mistake or a wellchosen phrase have derailed a campaign.
New policies are being announced and there is a sense of a bidding war developing between the two main parties. For some commentators (me included) spending money is not enough. A clear, credible and popular plan for the future should underpin all policies.
There are, then, risks for Labour. Under
Jacinda Ardern is turning in the kind of performance that moves votes.
the harsh light of the campaign, if they do not look like they have the policies and people to run the country, voters will begin to look again at what the National Party has to offer.
But there are risks for National too. Caught out by the unexpected rise of Ardern, National is doing all it can to change the perception that, after nine years, it might have run out of ideas. Trying too hard comes with its own risks; see Paula Bennett on human rights and Steven Joyce on budgets.
But if Labour can work through the obstacles and keep up momentum, the National Party may find all it can do is wait to be in opposition.
We have seen this before. David Lange and Robert Muldoon in 1984. National could do nothing to stop Labour winning. John Key and Helen Clark in 2008. Labour threw everything but the kitchen sink at Key. It did not work.
Sometimes a rising star can fail to fulfil their promise. Don Brash enjoyed a surge in the polls but still lost to Helen Clark. Yet, there is a time in politics when the train comes down the track, stops at the station, people crowd on and it moves off. The 2017 election is beginning to feel like one of those occasions. Jacinda Ardern is turning in the kind of performance that moves votes. Only a few weeks ago no one knew such leadership was on offer. Now that it is, people want to give it a chance.
Predicting the outcome on September 23 is still a fool’s game. But we are at the point when the tracks are about to divide with one party getting the opportunity to form a government while the other looks on.
The next week-and-a-half will decide the direction each will take. After that it will just be about punching tickets.
Special voting opens on September 11. If early votes reflect the mood that is sweeping the country, the seats on the train are likely to be heavily booked.