Bill’s back — Nats surge in new poll
Newshub figures put party at 47 per cent, Labour at 37.8 That Ardern magic shows signs of fading
Labour leader Jacinda Ardern appears to have hit a speed bump in the latest Newshub Reid Research poll as National’s Bill English claws back ground to get up to 47 per cent.
The poll had National up four points from a week ago to 47.3 per cent while Labour was down slightly on 37.8 per cent.
It is a stark contrast from the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll last Thursday night which had Labour steady on 43 per cent from the week before, while National had slipped to four points behind on 39.
The poll was bad news for the Green Party which was down below the vital 5 per cent threshold on 4.9 per cent — a fraction too low to return to Parliament if the election night result is the same.
NZ First had also slipped a bit to 6 per cent.
The contrast with the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll shows just how volatile the polling is — both leaders are expecting a tight race.
On the Newshub results, National would be able to govern alone — the Green Party’s vote would not be counted.
Last week English predicted the “stardust” around Ardern would fade as voters began to look at policies.
English had also climbed further as preferred Prime Minister — up to 33 per cent from 30 per cent. Ardern had inched up only slightly — from 29.9 to 31.7 per cent.
Ardern has spent much of the last week trying to bat off English’s attacks on “back pocket issues” and Labour’s “vague” policies on tax.
The last Newshub poll in early September had National still ahead but starting to slip on 43.3 per cent while Labour was up to 39.4 per cent. English’s personal support was also rising at that point — he had moved up to 30.1 per cent as preferred PM but Ardern was close on 29.9 per cent.
Both NZ First and the Green Party had dropped further to 6.6 per cent and 6.1 per cent as the squeeze from the contest between the two big parties took effect.
Early voting began on Monday, adding extra urgency to the campaigns of both National and Labour. Ardern was quick to get at least one vote in the bag — casting her own vote in Mt Albert yesterday and urging others to do the same.
Last night’s poll follows a concerted attack by National over the lack of clarity in Labour’s tax policy. That had led to Ardern ruling out any changes in income taxes and on Monday ruling out any inheritance tax — but she is otherwise sticking to her position not to decide on tax changes until after a Tax Working Group if in government.
There was also controversy over National Finance spokesman Steven Joyce’s attempt to discredit Labour’s fiscal plan by claiming an $11.7 billion hole in it.
That was rejected by several economic commentators, but English has stood by Joyce and pointed out that once extra money is put into health and education there is little left for other areas of government spending.
The Newshub Reid Research poll surveyed 1000 voters, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1. Bill English has got his wish.
The stardust around Jacinda Ardern has settled, if we are to believe Newshub’s latest poll putting National so far ahead it that could govern on its own.
It is difficult to believe that National would be able to govern alone after this election, although not impossible if the wasted vote is high.
But it is not difficult to believe that National’s fightback over Labour’s tax plans — plans to be confirmed in 18 months’ time — has stopped Ardern’s rise and that this election is still anybody’s.
Paula Bennett’s ripping into gangs may have helped.
And National’s plan to cut the benefits of young people who refuse take up the offer of work experience may have helped.
It is even possible that while Steven Joyce has been labelled “a fool” for his hyperbole about an $11.7 billion hole in Labour’s fiscal plans, voters paid some attention to the bank economists who said Labour had budgeted virtually nothing extra to spend over the next four years, except on education and health.
The other factor is English himself. Boring but dependable, he has had more exposure in the past two weeks than he received in the past nine months as the guy who had to step into John Key’s shoes as Prime Minister.
Ardern has had nothing short of a brilliant campaign (except for tax) in her short six weeks as leader, putting herself in contention as the next Prime Minister.
She is still in contention, of that there can be no doubt.
It makes every day count and the last leaders’ debate next Wednesday appears all the more crucial.
English had also climbed further as preferred Prime Minister.