It’s too close to call
With less than 48 hours of campaigning left, the election remains on a knife edge
National and a Labour-Greens coalition are neck and neck, according to last night’s Colmar Brunton TV1 poll, with NZ First teetering on the 5% elimination threshold. A Herald panel scored last night’s final TV debate in favour of National leader Bill English and described Labour leader Jacinda Ardern as “rattled” and defensive.
Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has put her election eve poll drop down to a “negative campaign” by National on Labour’s tax policy. Ardern said she believed New Zealanders do want change despite Labour stalling in the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll and National taking a healthy lead again.
The poll showed National had pushed ahead of Labour to 46 per cent — while Labour was down seven points to 37 per cent. Both would need NZ First to form a government.
Ardern did not believe the drop was due to Labour’s uncertain position on taxes — or her decision to back down and rule out introducing any new taxes until after 2020.
She said voters she met were more concerned with health and mental health than taxes. She accused National of “fabricating” claims there was a multibillion hole in Labour’s fiscal plan, despite economists lining up to dismiss that claim.
“I have been out there on the road saying you were a competent Finance Minister . . . but for you to stand here today . . . I cannot believe two days out from an election you continue to mislead people like that.”
She said English had damaged his reputation as “honest Bill”.
Ardern said English and National had mounted an “unfair” campaign on Labour’s tax policies and that had an impact. “There’s no doubt the negative campaign from National has had an effect. That’s not going to change the way I campaign.”
English denied it was a negative campaign, saying National had every right to question and challenge Labour’s policies. He denied his claims about Labour’s income tax were misleading.
But English was also cautious about the poll results, saying he believed the Labour and National blocs were “neck and neck”.
“We want voters to consider very carefully the choice they are making.”
English said National’s rise followed voters getting into the “tin tacks” of the campaign and weighing up what the two parties were offering.
He had predicted in a previous debate that the “stardust” around the elevation of Ardern as leader would settle and voters would start to look more seriously at what was on offer.
Debate moderator Mike Hosking told English the rupture of the fuel pipe to Auckland Airport made New Zealand look like a “huckleberry little nation”, and some responsibility had to rest with his Government.
English said such incidents happened, and fuel storage capacity was increased five years ago. Ardern said Labour would either build more storage or a second pipeline.
Asked if the accumulation of the water tax, the Emissions Trading Scheme and the Greens’ nitrates levy amounted to an attack on the farming sector, Ardern said they were not all Labour policy. She believed it was possible to farm smarter.
English said National and farmers had already put a lot of work into water quality. Ardern said health was the biggest issue raised with her during the campaign, particularly people who couldn’t get help for mental health problems.
English agreed a new approach
was needed on mental health, and National had committed to that, including e-therapy.
Ardern said vision was needed on issues such as the housing crisis. She accused English of allowing poverty to worsen. “Under my leadership there will be no auto-pilot.”
English said National had better solutions than Labour, and his party had a strong focus on social issues.