Climate change a ‘key’ factor in migration

Climate change is proving a bigger factor in people’s decisions to migrate more than income and political freedom combined, Kiwi researchers say.

An analysis by Otago University economics researcher Dr Dennis Wesselbaum and Victoria University Master’s student Amelia Aburn crunched figures around migration flows between 16 OECD destinations and 198 origin countries, including New Zealand, across 35 years.

Research into the drivers of migration has traditionally focused on economic factors like wage differences and moving costs, and only recently have climatic factors been added to the mix.

In what’s thought to be the first time researchers have studied the full picture over a wide timeframe, capturing long-term effects and year-toyear variations, Wesselbaum and Aburn were able to isolate climate change as a major influence.

Their results suggested it to be a more important driver than even income and political freedom put together.

“In combination, the effect of climate change through higher temperatures and an increase in the incidence of disasters is more important than the effects of income and policy at origin [country] together,” they reported.

“In conclusion, our results suggest that climate change is a key driver of migration.”

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent report projected global surface temperature was likely to rise a further 0.3C to 1.7C in the lowest emissions scenario, and 2.6C to 4.8C in the highest emissions scenario.

“Climate refugees have yet to be recognised officially by international law and included in the UN refugee convention, but the predicted 2-3C rise in global temperature will see climate refugees rather sooner than later,” the researchers said.

“This raises the question for New Zealand of how we, as an individual country, can prepare for the impact on our population as well as our land.”