BANKING: It’s goodbye, jobs
Atop executive at a major Wall Street bank is deep into his spiel on how artificial intelligence will make the firm smarter and leaner when he pauses to take a question: what does this mean for young people entering the business?
The silence grows. “It’s, um,” he says, shifting tone and making it clear he can’t speak publicly. That question is gnawing at him, he confides, because he has kids. “I would want them to pick their careers very carefully. I think AI is going to eliminate most jobs. That’s a private view. I think we’re just starting to feel that.”
Many financial firms are preparing to roll out a new generation of technology. Publicly, they’re upbeat, predicting machines will perform almost all repetitive tasks, freeing humans to focus on more valuable pursuits. Privately, many say they’re worried about what will happen to their staff — and what to tell them.
There’s also uncertainty. Maybe it’s all overblown, executives say, because the tech will be hard to implement and humans will find new roles. Or perhaps it’s the beginning of the end for legions of professionals in one of the world’s most lucrative fields. Can jobs held by office-dwelling millionaires disappear like those on factory floors?
For a rosy scenario, look to consultancy McKinsey & Co. In July, it published a report estimating machines are ready to assume roughly a third of the work now performed by banks’ rank and file. People will have more time to tend to clients, conduct research or brainstorm ideas, said the report.
At JPMorgan Chase, chief executive Jamie Dimon predicted in June that his workforce is more likely to grow than shrink over the next 20 years. Technology may displace workers, he’s said, but it also creates opportunities.
Yet in interviews, about a dozen Wall Street executives and consultants were more bearish on humans. Machines will take over task after task, they said, and banks simply won’t need nearly as many people.
“Are there positions in financial services that are actually untouchable from technology? The simple answer is no,” said Simon Moss, head of Grant Thornton’s fintech and innovation practice for the industry. “It’s just a case of when.” Early adopters are working with technology including machine-learning software that improves itself by searching data for patterns, and natural-language processing, which helps computers comprehend human speech. Once firms figure out how to deploy those, said Moss, rivals may quickly follow suit. Humans will have less to do, and banks will whittle costs by shrinking headcount.
At UBS Group, executives are using a digital employee known as Amelia to quickly perform repetitive tasks in the firm’s investment bank and asset management divisions. “The first question at mind is ‘What happens to my job?”’ said Tom DeCarlo, a managing director.
But dismissals aren’t his plan. “As we have attrition . . . I’m just not replacing those people.”
Sergio Ermotti, UBS’ CEO, recently said the firm could shed 30 per cent of its staff over a decade.
Are there positions in financial services that are actually untouchable from technology? The simple answer is no. Simon Moss, Grant Thornton