Opposition will keep Govt on its toes
When Parliament gets down to business today it will be unlike any its members have previously seen in one respect. The largest party will be sitting on the Opposition benches. National will not be the chastened former Government that normally retreats to Opposition to lick its electoral wounds and start the long task of recovery. It has handed over a growing economy underpinned by budget surpluses and business confidence. It can bide its time to see how the country fares under a Government with slightly different priorities and spending instincts.
But it needs to bide its time. After nine years a new Government, no matter how it wins power, is always a refreshing change. This one has quickly acquired the image of its young, female Prime Minister. Having put her party in power, Winston Peters has wisely kept a low profile. The Speech from the Throne today will probably feature policies with distinct gender and generational thrust, such as the extension of paid parental leave already announced.
National has handled its disappointment well so far. Leader Bill English accepted Peters’ decision with grace and both he and party president Peter Goodfellow have stressed to their members that the outcome is perfectly in line with MMP. It followed a generally good natured election campaign, at least in exchanges between the leaders, English and Jacinda Ardern. Both had reason to be positive. English, because the polls had not turned against National as they often do during a third term in office, Ardern because she had momentum in the polls from the moment she became Labour’s leader until the last week of the campaign.
In the end, National lost office because it lost supporting parties. Act, United Future and the Maori Party suffered the fate of all previous small parties in governments under MMP. Long before the end, all of them were reduced to depending on a single electorate for survival and only Act retained its seat this year. It will be interesting to see how long NZ First and the Greens fare in this Government. Neither has an electorate seat for safety.
Their governing agreements with Labour include undertakings that their contributions will be acknowledged by the larger party and Ardern impresses as the sort of leader who will do so at every opportunity. But she will also want to lift Labour above National in the polls and that would probably happen at her partners’ expense.
National will no doubt be hoping to see NZ First’s vote fall below the 5 per cent threshold during this Parliament, taking the party out of the equation in 2020 as has happened twice previously. The Greens may have a more solid voting base though it has yet to be tested inside a government. All three governing parties will need to adopt some positions that are not their own, and National will be looking for wedge issues. But National should not be too quick to play conventional Opposition politics. English has wisely left all his former ministers in watchdog roles on the portfolios they know well. With few exceptions, they have a good legacy to defend and with the largest caucus in Parliament, National should be vigorous and effective.