Prom Queen set to have ball in NZ 1000 Guineas
There is one question continually asked about Prom Queen for tomorrow’s $300,000 New Zealand 1000 Guineas — can she successfully run out the 1600m?
Well, the sun will still come up on Sunday morning if she doesn’t, but it might have a slightly different tinge.
The simple answer is Prom Queen will win, provided she is at her best.
Don’t be fooled into thinking the extremely long home straight will give the opposition a better shot at her. Just as the tight circuit at Moonee Valley can be more difficult to lead and win on than the expanse of Flemington, strong front runners can lead and win as easily at Riccarton and Te Aroha and as they can at Rotorua and Te Awamutu.
Often under these circumstances a bunny might be sent out to soften a leader up, but none in this field has anything like Prom Queen’s acute speed. Even if they did, it’s suicide.
The only threat in terms of sheer ability is Dijon Bleu, going for four straight wins. It is generally thought she was given time to balance up early by dropping to the rear in the first 100m when winning the Soliloquy Stakes at Ellerslie last start. But she was flattened and rider Leith Innes had no choice but to check back.
The speed the Burgundy filly showed to go from near last to join the leaders rounding the home bend was stunning. If she can re-produce that dash from the 400m tomorrow it would place her somewhere within the grasp of the favourite approaching the 150m.
One concern would be the somewhat erratic behaviour Dijon Bleu showed when left in front from the 200m last start. Most horses will look around at the huge Ellerslie infrastructure when spying it for the first time and Riccarton does not have the same visual distraction. The filly wore a lugging bit at Ellerslie and will carry the same gear again.
Pentathlon would be a popular winner in the $250,000 Christchurch Casino New Zealand Cup.
The rugged stayer missed by less than one length when attempting to squeeze into his second Melbourne Cup tilt when only third in the Lexus on Derby Day at Flemington and trainer John Wheeler put him straight on a flight to Christchurch.
Pentathlon is normally an excellent traveller, but was a fraction off his best on this trip to Melbourne and as with any Australian carnival, a fraction is enough to get you beaten. Wheeler is happy with the way the horse has arrived in the South Island and believes he will get his chance tomorrow.
Sampson is some sort of hope. His latest form is a lot better than it reads on paper and he has clearly been set for this race. He has had two attempts at 3200m, his best being third to Mister Impatience and Pentathlon in last year’s Wellington Cup.