Is this the end of tech’s bull run?
Jamie Gray, Stock Takes,
The prospect of President Donald Trump’s tax reforms getting through is having an impact on US share markets, which may have a ripple effect here. A lower US corporate tax may bring an end to what has been a great run for the so-called “growth” stocks, and what happens in the world’s biggest share market tends to be felt all around the world.
As US law makers put the final touches to the biggest overhaul in the US tax regime in decades, the growth stocks, which tend to be tech stocks, have come under selling pressure after a stellar run this year.
The drop in the US corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 20 per cent is expected to benefit the run-of-the-mill stocks, but not the high flyers.
Growth stocks don’t tend to pay much tax, and the bigger ones have a high proportion of their sales in foreign jurisdictions, so tax cuts aren’t expected to have much of an impact.
As a result, “rotation” has become the buzz word on Wall Street as investors switch out of the tech sector and into those companies that have the most to gain — the ones that pay their 35 per cent and derive most of their earnings in the United States.
“There has been a huge rotation,” Craigs Investment Partners head of private wealth research, Mark Lister, said.
“People have been selling the tech sector, because it has the biggest exposure to non-US earnings and quite low tax rates, so they have the least to gain from the tax reform,” he said.
“Obviously there are sectors that will benefit,” he said. “We have seen tech stocks come under pressure and utilties and energy companies back into favour.”
It may well be “drawing a long bow”, but the local market is not immune from trends in the world’s biggest sharemarket, he said.
“Maybe, at the fringes, that’s a reason why Xero has been sold off a bit lately,” Lister said.
There is a precedent for that. At the start of 2016 Xero went from just over $20.00 to $13.51 in February, for no other apparent reason other than a sell-off taking place in the US tech sector at that time.
Bernard Doyle, JBWere’s, head of investment strategy, said the reaction of the US tech sector to the prospect of a new tax regime had been underwhelming.
“And people are speculating that this is the end of the lovely bull run that the growth stocks have had,” he said.
“People are starting to question whether this is the start of rotation out of ‘growth’ and into stuff that is more nuts and bolts,” he said.
“[US] Tech stocks have gained 30 per cent this year, so it’s ripe for a bit of a pause,” he said.
Gentrack for NZX50?
Xero, which its plans to delist from the NZX next year to make Australia its primary listing, has come under pressure. Since its November 9 announcement, the share price has dropped by $x.xx or xx per cent (from $34). Attention is now turning to which stock will replace Xero on the NZX50 index when it finally departs early next year. Gentrack, which has tended to fly under the radar screen, has emerged as a likely candidate.
Unlike most tech stocks, the company — which specialises in making software for the airport, energy and water utility sectors — already has a strong earnings record and it pays a dividend.
The company’s share price has been firm lately, as investors speculate that it will take Xero’s place on the index.
Inclusion in the index tends to make stocks more sought-after, particularly as they then come to the attention of the increasingly influential index-based investment funds.
Other changes to the index are understood to be in the wings.
PushPay for Metro?
NZX is expected to soon announce that PushPay will take the place of Metro Performance Glass on the NZX50.
Last month, Metro said it was adjusting its New Zealand business to reflect softer market conditions.
Its shares last traded at xx cents, down from $2 this time last year.