GFC warning signs in loan stats

But KPMG plays down indications of another crisis as non-bank lending rises

Some of the signs seen before the GFC are back, financiers are warning. These include rising debt, strong demand for more loans and an increase in past-due debt, according to KPMG’s latest survey of nonbank lenders.

Despite profits being well up at these lenders — which include finance companies, credit unions and mortgage trusts — some of the survey participants raised concerns that some conditions were similar to those seen before the global financial crisis.

“Some trends such as strong de- mand for loans, the overall level of indebtedness of borrowers and an early indicator of credit quality issues around seemingly sub-prime lending appear to be similar to those trends which were observed in 2007 (before the GFC),” KPMG said.

But KPMG’s head of financial services John Kensington said he did not believe there were any real indications that there was going to be another financial crisis but pointed to a lack of confidence and uncertainty in the wake of the election and change in government.

Profits at the non-bank lenders rose 10 per cent to $216.7 million in the year to September 30, according to KPMG’s survey.

Gross loans and advances across the sector were up close to 14 per cent, nearly double the 8 per cent growth in the banking sector.

Kensington said the big driver of the growth was a slowdown in lending by the big four Australian-owned banks — Westpac, ANZ, BNZ and ASB — who had faced capital constraints by their parent companies.

Kensington said that restriction had left the banks with the choice of either beginning a deposit war which was seen as unpalatable, raising money offshore which they had done or slowing down new lending.

“If they [the big banks] are not doing it, it trickles down to the next level and the next level.”

He said a lot of borrowers had been told no by one or more banks and then decided to go to a broker which had led them to a finance company.

Tighter home loan restrictions on the banks saw non-bank mortgage

If they [the big banks] are not doing it, it trickles down to the next level and the next level.

lending boosted from $1.61b to $2.05b over the year. Consumer lending grew from $4.4b to $4.83b.

Record vehicle sales helped boost vehicle financiers although Kensington said it was more businesses refreshing their fleets than individual car sales that was behind the rise.

He said the robust economy which had been doing well for some time, combined with low interest rates and low levels of unemployment, was giving consumers confidence to borrow.

“There is a bit of a feel good factor.”

While lending across the sector grew, impaired asset expenses also rose by 37 per cent to $31.34m.

Kensington said impairment losses and provisioning still appeared to be at cyclical lows.

Kensington said while some parts of the economy were seeing flat growth — such as construction, property development and residential property — other export-led sectors were still doing well.

Kensington said the sector was in a great space heading into 2018 although concerns around the rise of fintech was an ongoing issue.

“Many participants we spoke to felt that NZ’s advanced banking system may be delaying the impact of fintechs, as the market is already comparatively efficient.”

He expected that to result in partnerships between finance firms and tech companies rather than businesses going it alone.

KPMG’s head of financial services John Kensington