The Trump Recession is coming

During Donald Trump’s holiday break at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, he convened meetings to start planning his reelection campaign.

Given the garish accounts in the new book by sometimes-reliable writer Michael Wolff — of Trump’s horror at winning in 2016, of his wife’s angry tears at the prospect of being first lady, of his lonely hours in bed with a cheeseburger, ranting at the TV — you might wonder why Trump would want a second term. Rare is the president who doesn’t, despite the pressures and isolation. Re-election is the ultimate ratification, the political equivalent of Sally Field’s 1984 Oscar moment: “The first time I didn’t feel it, but this time I feel it, and I can’t deny that you like me. You like me!”

Despite evidence to the contrary, Trump wants to be liked. So I don’t doubt that he’s laying plans for 2020, though Democrats, some rival Republicans, and maybe Special Counsel Robert Mueller have other plans. When he schedules his next skull session, then, a certain topic ought to be on the agenda: timing the Trump Recession.

History suggests that the next recession is not far off. The expansion has been steady since June 2009, making this the third-longest upward climb on record. Juiced by the tax cut, the US is on track to record 107 months without a recession in April, passing the boom of the 1960s in duration. That will leave only the decade-long, 120-month run in the 1990s to be beaten.

Just when the 2020 election begins to warm up, in the northern spring of 2019, the economy (if it isn’t already in recession) will break the existing record. It’s not hard to imagine shocks that could trigger a drop. Democrats could win control of the House and ignite an impeachment crisis. Mueller’s investigation could take an unsettling turn. China’s debt bubble could burst. North Korea could erupt. Or the President could deliver on his trade war threats.

Trump’s tax cut may prove to be a double-edged sword. The recession that might have arrived in 2018 and passed like a summer storm will likely be shoved back a couple of years. Democrats going back to John F Kennedy score their wins when Republican presidents stumble into late-term economic woes.

Perhaps Trump should have accepted a recession early in his first term, trusting the recovery would come in time to lift him to re-election. That option is gone now. My prediction is that Trump will throw open the Government’s liquor cabinets and pour out every stimulating drop he can get his hands on to keep the party going. What a morning-after that is likely to be.