Volatility now the new norm
Global market more at risk than local
While the rollercoaster ride on sharemarkets around the world may have made headlines and created a frenzy of attention, experts suggest this could be just the start of a return to more normal volatility levels.
John Carran, a senior economist at Kiwi Wealth, says historically volatility has been the norm for sharemarkets.
“What has been unusual over the last two years has been very low volatility.
“What we have now is a return to the type of volatility we have seen prior to the global financial crisis and before central banks started pumping money into the financial system.”
Carran believes volatility is likely to be a theme in the markets this year as share valuations hit all time highs making them more sensitive to bad news. Companies who surprise on the down-side or even fail to meet expectations on profits could see their share prices hammered.
But Carran says the global market is likely to be more affected than the New Zealand sharemarket where companies are typically more defensive.
New Zealand’s sharemarket has been an attractive place for overseas investors with its high dividend paying companies, but with interest rates set to rise that could see less money coming here.
“Those markets more sensitive to interest rate rises will suffer more, in that sense the New Zealand market is a little more vulnerable,” Carran says.
But despite the market turbulence economic fundamentals remained strong with most economies around the world expecting to grow this year.
Xero’s first week
Xero had its first week of trading after consolidating its listing on the ASX this week and chief executive Rod Drury says it has “gone well” despite the markets’ ups and downs.
Xero shares lost A$4.09 during the market sell- off falling from its Thursday closing price of A$34.79 to A$30.70 on Tuesday when Wall St had its biggest one day fall in more than six years.
But it has since recovered some ground. Drury said he was not worried about the share price and was instead focused on building up its awareness among Australian investors. “We have done a lot of work with Australian investors and funds. People are seeing we are entering out next chapter.”
Drury said it had only lost a “very small” number of New Zealand investors through its NZX de-listing which received heavy criticism from major fund managers.
Xero is expected to enter the ASX200 next month as the index goes through it usual rebalancing and will likely get a bump when funds that track the index have to buy shares.
Drury said he was hopeful the company could make it into the ASX100 in the next year or two.
Vodafone on hold?
The volatility in the sharemarkets will raise questions about the initial public offer of the local Vodafone business which has been slated for listing this year.
One market player suggested it would still likely get the go ahead but the volatility could impact what investors were prepared to pay for it.
Another believed it could be delayed until the second half of the year but not because of the markets but because of the sale of Vocus’ New Zealand assets.
In October ASX-listed Vocus Group said it planned to sell its New Zealand assets, which include the Orcon and CallPlus retail businesses, by the end of June.
Initial bids were due this week with Trustpower thought to be a possible buyer as well as 2Degrees with the help of a private equity backer.
Both Spark and Vodafone will be closely watching the sale although if either of them bid for the assets they would likely need clearance from the Commerce Commission as it would set off competition concerns.
Once the distraction of the sale is out of the way it would clear the path for Vodafone to go ahead.
Old tech best
Spark has poured a lot of effort into re-branding itself as a technology first company rather than just a stodgy old telco since its re-brand from Telecom days. But it seems old tech still has its place. Spark announced this week that its half year result briefing would only be held via a teleconference with no webcast.
A Spark spokeswoman said its decision to dump the webcast was based on feedback from analysts who don’t want to watch a slide by slide run through of the presentation and want to focus on asking questions.
Spark’s half year result will be released on February 21.