$1m Derby looks like 5-horse race
You can make a case for each of the first five home on Saturday winning the Derby
If the question is what did we learn about the $1 million Vodafone NZ Derby from Saturday’s $100,000 Electrolux Avondale Guineas, the answer is plenty.
The Derby aside, we are all being made aware they could be an exceptional current bunch of 3-year-old stayers. You can make a case for each of the first five home on Saturday winning the Derby. Each turned in a huge performance.
Barely two lengths separated the five and although they will be going 300m further in the Derby, barrier draws are going to be critical as they were on Saturday. The worst affected was the favourite Scott Base, who had no chance other than to drop back to the tail from very wide at the 2100m. He was two lengths last at the 900m, covered more ground than any other runner looping the entire field and stuck on with great tenacity to be one length from the winner On The Rocks in fourth.
It is in no way downgrading the runs from the other quartet in the first five to say Scott Base’s was probably the run of the race.
“He will need to draw a better gate in the Derby,” acknowledges cotrainer Jonno Benner.
One of the features of the race was the rock’n’roll Danzdanzdance ( inside), Mission Hill in the middle and Scott Base (widest) engaged in as the trio came around the home turn sprinting in a line. Each bounced off the other and all three became unbalanced. Danzdanzdance switched inside and sprinted, Scott Base continued to attack out wide and Mission Hill attempted a gap through the middle and missed out, Danielle Johnson having to check his momentum inside the 130m.
Meanwhile On The Rocks, who had enjoyed a perfect passage from an inside gate, sprinted to take a narrow advantage, which he held by a close margin from Danzdanzdance. Between them Vin De Dance took a nice third after a similar passage via a good barrier. With horses improving around the outside approaching the home turn Jason Waddell had to press the button on him a touch earlier than he would have liked, but Vin De Dance kept going strongly. He didn’t sprint the closing stages quite as well as a couple of the others who had been released much earlier, but was strong on the line and looked every bit a type for the 2400m of the Derby. You could argue Danzdanzdance was fractionally more affected by the home turn incident than the others, so her effort was excep- tional after sitting back and wide from a horror barrier. Mission Hill was huge for a horse that still lacks full maturity. A better barrier and more luck in the latter stages would have seen him dispute the finish. For a horse having only his fourth raceday appearance The Mayor was impressive, yet another who drew closer to the grandstand than the inside rail. After sharing the front 400m out, he wilted a bit late and perhaps the Derby has come up a fraction too early for him. He has plenty of ability.
If you backed Mongolianconqueror in the Derby before Saturday’s race, don’t despair. Rider Michael McNab said he was not happy in the conditions and he did not finish far from the leading group.
So, the Derby. Without the benefit of the barrier draw this column pics Scott Base to win from Danzdanzdance and so too does the TAB, whose adjusted market has the pair joint Derby favourites at $4.50. If there is a mild surprise the TAB drifted Scott Base $1 from $3.50 after Saturday’s effort.
An interesting sidebar to Saturday is On The Rocks won Saturday’s Ellerslie feature under Jake Bayliss and his brother Regan took the biggest race in Australia on Saturday, the A$750,000 Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington on Redkirk Warrior, narrowly defeating hot favourite, Everest winner Redzel.
Redkirk Warrior’s Hall Of Fame cotrainer David Hayes recently stood Regan Bayliss down as stable rider for one month for not adhering to stable rules on a ride, kicking up to sit outside the leader after missing the start.
“Everyone that knows me knows I jump out of my tree if one of my jockeys does that,” says Hayes. “I tell them if they miss the start, make ground late not early. I don’t care if that means they get beaten.”
Redkirk Warrior was the first serious ride Hayes engaged Bayliss for since the stand-down. Interestingly, Bayliss began his apprenticeship with Black Caviar’s trainer, the now retired Peter Moody, then he switched to David Hayes. Both horsemen speak highly of Bayliss. $1m Derby market: $4.50 Scott Base, Danzdanzdance. $6.50 On The Rocks, Vin de Dance. $10 Xbox, Sacred Day, Mission Hill.
$14 Mongolianconqueror Civil Disobedience.
$18 The Mayor, Time Lord.