Playing the numbers game with National

When departing leader Bill English counselled the National caucus not to make public declarations about which candidate they would be supporting as leader, it encouraged a greater level of secrecy than is usual with leadership contests.

It has inevitably led to a high degree of speculation about which of the 56 MPs will be supporting which of the four candidates.

The Herald’s Press Gallery team has put together our best guess at which way MPs may be leaning.

For example, Mark Mitchell is the only candidate to welcome the prospect of Steven Joyce remaining as finance spokesman, so it could be logical to assume Joyce would support him.

And Simon Bridges attracted a number of public declarations of support when he stood against Paula Bennett for the deputy’s role in 2016 and we have assumed they are sticking with him.

It was done without asking any of the candidates to vet the lists, and with a week to go until the vote, it will be updated.

It does not claim to be a definitive list because many MPs are undecided.

This first list shows suggests that Simon Bridges and Amy Adams are well in front of Judith Collins and Mark Mitchell but that Mitchell has more support in caucus than Collins.

It also suggests that if the two leading contenders, Bridges and Adams, are close, the contest will go to a vote rather than having a negotiated outcome. In that case, where the supporters of Collins and Mitchell go could be crucial.