ON A KNIFE EDGE

New chapter begins for National as leadership race goes to vote

The National Party will bring in a new dawn today as it elects a leader with the race between Amy Adams and Simon Bridges said to be on a knife edge. The party’s caucus of 56 MPs will meet this morning to elect a leader from five contenders: Adams (right), Bridges (left), Judith Collins, Steven Joyce and Mark Mitchell. The MPs spent yesterday and last night in lastminute lobbying — including of each other — and will get five minutes to make a pitch to caucus this morning. Adams and Bridges are expected to be the front runners although Joyce claims he has a chance. But neither have claimed to have the 29 votes needed in the bag — and sources

within their camps are expecting the contest to be extremely close.

It will likely come down to the second choices of the supporters of Mitchell, Joyce and Collins.

The vote will be done in progressive rounds, with the bottom polling candidate knocked out on each round and their supporters casting their votes for another.

The Adams camp in particular has assiduously courted the “second” votes of supporters of Mitchell, Joyce and Collins.

However, with some MPs yet to make up their minds, things could hinge on the last-ditch speeches the contenders will deliver to caucus this morning — a strong performance could shift the “soft” vote.

The deputy leadership contest is also in the air. While all have said they have made no firm commitments on positions, the leadership contenders are understood to have sounded each other out to assess the appetite for being deputy.

The most likely combination is Simon Bridges with Paula Bennett as deputy or Amy Adams with Steven Joyce as deputy.

While it is likely the loser of Bridges and Adams will be offered the deputy role if the vote is close, both are likely to prefer the finance portfolio.

Collins has also said she would consider deputy and she as well as Jonathan Coleman also want finance.

Whatever the outcome, today’s vote spells the end of the John Key and Bill English era — an era of unprecedented high popularity for National.

In the pitches today, Joyce is likely to warn National not to put all that at risk by going for a major change. Bridges and Adams too have been cautious about promising a wide-scale shake up while Collins will be pushing for more aggression in Opposition.

The new leader will be expected to keep polling high and discipline tight — not an easy task in Opposition.

None would commit to putting all of their rivals on the front bench but the front bench posts and plum portfolios will be critical to try to prevent divisions in caucus — MPs such as Collins have made it clear they expect to be on the front bench.

Collins said if she was unsuccessful it would be up to whoever was leader whether she was put on the front bench. “But I would have thought it would be a bit of a waste of my skills.

“Bill English brought me back on to the front bench for a reason.”

While some believed a negotiated outcome would have been tidier, MPs spoken to said they were glad it was going to the full vote for it meant the leader would be caucus’ choice.

Joyce said losing English would be a major change and the focus for the new leader would be ensuring the right combination was in place.

“One of the challenges for the new leader is to draw the team together and make sure the change is a positive change. The one or two at the top [carry] a lot of the workload.”

He would not rule out going for deputy if he was unsuccessful in the leadership.

All candidates have ruled out promising positions for votes in the lead-up to the election — but said they had talked to others about what shape a leadership team might take.

While it is likely they will offer some of their rivals front bench positions, none would commit to it in advance.

Adams said they were talented and she would use all in the best way possible.

She said they had been talking to each other but had not made any “deals” or promises in return for votes.

“It’s quite natural we are having conversations, as we are with the core people in other people’s teams because we . . . are talking about how it might shape up. But it’s [not] at the point of lockdown arrangements.”

Mark Mitchell, the rookie of the pack, is unlikely to make the leadership team but the contest will have done him no harm and leaves him well-placed for another tilt should today’s vote be unsuccessful.