Lamb joins exclusive $3 billion club
Tight sheepmeat supplies from New Zealand and Australia are driving the strong export receipts
– up 14 per cent on last season – while export volume has remained steady.
Total mutton receipts are also forecast to be up strongly – by 11 per cent to $602m.
A 24 per cent increase in the average value per tonne to $6500 more than offsets the forecast 7.3 per cent drop in mutton export volume, he said.
These factors have supported strong farm gate prices for mutton, which are estimated to be up by 37 per cent to average 394 cents per kg for the 2017/18 season.
Burtt said tight sheepmeat export supplies from New Zealand and Australia are driving the strong export receipts because together the two countries account for around 90 per cent of international sheepmeat trade, excluding intra European Union trade.
In the December quarter, the number of lambs processed was up 13 per cent and the number of adult sheep processed was up 15 per cent.
The higher production was driven by the good farm gate prices and dry conditions in many regions.
As a result, Beef and Lamb’s Economic Service forecasts availability of lambs and adult sheep for the remaining January to September period to be down 2.2 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.
In beef, a rise in average value per tonne to $7100 – up 3.2 per cent – will offset the forecast 4.6 per cent decrease in beef export volume.
Export beef production is expected to dip for the 2017/18 season at 590,000 tonnes – down 1.3 per cent – due to a slight decrease in average carcass weights and slightly fewer cattle processed.
The average cattle farm gate price is forecast to be 529 cents per kg – up 6.9 per cent.
The US dollar is expected to strengthen through 2018, supporting good returns from the US and China, which are New Zealand’s largest beef export markets.