Korea truce hinges on motivations

Not only has the world recently witnessed an apparent and rapid U-turn from various parties on the North Korea nuclear front, the push for progress appears to be rapidly gaining momentum, too. Mere months ago, personal insults and threats of nuclear annihilation were being fired off between North Korea leader Kim Jong Un and United States President Donald Trump as the world and White House insiders alike looked on with growing alarm.

Now, a momentous meeting between the two leaders is imminent and in the past days equally historic scenes have been witnessed between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae In. The bluster from Kim and his regime has turned to rhetoric about reconciliation, peace and prosperity and Trump’s bravado is off the charts as he and his administration toast their role as playmakers.

While the boasting is unpalatable to some, even some of Trump’s fiercest critics are crediting him with at least some of the gains made.

It is impossible to know for certain whether progress was made because of Trump’s diplomatic skills or because the combination of stiffer sanctions, menacing promises and his unpredictable nature made the US President too unpredictable for Kim to continue to mess with for long. Was it a simple change of heart, or bowing down for the North Korean leader, though? Or, as leader of a now apparently nuclear-capable power, is he ready to flex his stronger bargaining muscles?

It could all come crashing down. After all, there is little concrete to go on yet and a long legacy of hostility and broken denuclearisation agreements to recall. But both leaders clearly want to make a mark on this issue and their personalities are certainly helping fuel a rapid pace of progress.

So, for now, it is fair to say onlookers the world over remain guarded, in a state of cautious optimism. Still, there is no denying the power of the images of Kim and Moon’s meeting in Korea’s demilitarised zone. The pictures of supposed enemies shaking hands and then stepping over the military demarcation line at the border into each other’s territory were significant and hugely symbolic. The world has witnessed a mighty step towards peace on the Korean Peninsula.

There are immense hurdles and great uncertainties still, within North and South Korea and from other nations including some of the very powers also involved in negotiations.

As Israel, Iran and the US enter a new war of words over the Iran nuclear deal, it is clear old foes do not make overnight and easy bedfellows. Is Trump — who is simultaneously debating pulling out of the Iran nuclear accord and building his own Cold War-style Mexican wall — sincere? Can Kim — whose “rogue regime” has reneged on all previous denuclearisation agreements — be trusted? What are their hidden motives? What compromises will they be willing to make without losing face?

The will of the world may largely be with them, but the weight of history is surely against them. Let us hope this is the making of both of these two mavericks — and a brave new world.