Guesses on jail tally behind the blowout
changes and the way they were brought in created increasing uncertainty around projections. They were told: “The work involves deciding upon assumptions regarding the impact of changes and the continuation of trends. The assumptions are a best guess — they will often be wrong.”
Officials told former Minister of Justice Amy Adams the growth in the prison population was “unexpected” and New Zealand’s incarceration rate was “high by international standards”.
She was also told judges and the Parole Board seemed to have become more “risk-averse”, putting prisoners away for longer and keeping them behind bars. They were unsure if it was down to “get tough” talk from politicians or a reaction to one-off, high-profile events such as Graeme Burton committing murder on parole.
Victoria University criminologist Dr Liam Martin said quick-fire “tough on crime” law-making since 1999 had introduced so many variables that officials were in an almost impossible position.
A recent review of the criminal justice system by the Prime Minister’s chief science adviser, Sir Peter Gluckman, said the “tough on crime” policies had made New Zealand less safe by damaging people who needed help and creating hardened criminals.
Martin said the models of projections included complicated mathematical formulas but “there’s a lot of moving parts” and “it’s just guesswork”.
Ministry of Justice sector insights manager Anton Youngman said projections were made on “current legislation, policy and practices” at the time.
The assumptions — what would happen because of current known factors — were agreed on by the Ministry of Justice, the police, the judiciary, Corrections, Treasury and Crown Law, he said.
Youngman said the process was studied and endorsed with some recommendations for change by an outside reviewer in 2015 and 2017.
Corrections deputy chief executive Jeremy Lightfoot said the justice sector was working together to “safely manage the impact of a higherthan-projected increase in the prison population in recent years”.
“The prison population has grown by almost 30 per cent in the past five years, for reasons that are outside of Corrections’ control, including changes in legislation, policy and practice.”
Lightfoot said remand changes, prisoners serving more of their sentence in prison and an increase in longer sentences for serious crime had driven numbers up.
He said it was Corrections’ job to manage those sent to prison and “we do not have the option of turning people away”. There were current plans to add 900 extra beds to the prison network by the end of 2019.