Why 2018 has been warm

First three months of year New Zealand’s hottest recorded January to March period

This year has been one of the warmest on the books in New Zealand. And May’s average temperatures could have been record-breaking in places had a blast from Antarctica not pushed down the mercury late in the month.

According to Niwa, the January-through-May period was the fourth warmest of any year recorded in New Zealand.

The year’s first three months was the hottest January to March period ever — coming in at 1.75C above the 1981 to 2010 average, and beating even the El Nino summer of 1998 — while January itself was the warmest single month observed here to date.

Scientists put our hottest ever summer down to a combination of factors including a La Nina climate system which drove more northerly winds, a cold-blocking positive Southern Annular Mode, a dramatic marine heatwave and the tail-wind of climate change.

Niwa’s latest big climate summary, issued yesterday, showed the nationwide average temperature in May was 11.2C — or 0.4C above the 30-year average.

Thanks to more westerly winds than average over New Zealand, which brought a Foehn effect, temperatures in parts of Hawke’s Bay came in at 1.2C above average, or “well above”.

Hastings, Waipawa and Wairoa all saw their third-warmest May on record.

For everywhere else in the North Island, temperatures were above average, except for Northland, Taranaki and Wellington, where the endof-month figures were instead “near” average.

In the South Island, May temperatures were above average in Nelson and coastal Canterbury north of Ashburton — Akaroa recorded also its third-warmest May — while temperatures elsewhere in the island were near average, and below average in parts of Southland.

Across the country, the first half of last month was relatively warm and dry. Twenty-two days in, Palmerston North, Turangi, Waiouru, Te Puke, Motu, Te Kuiti, Waipawa, Wairoa, Farewell Spit, Westport, Culverden, Waiau, Cheviot, Medbury and Akaroa were all on track to break records.

But May took a chilly turn when a blocking anticyclone became established over the southeast of Australia, delivered a prolonged period of disturbed west and southwesterly winds over New Zealand.

Many fronts were embedded in this flow, which resulted in an unsettled spell of weather with bands of thunderstorms passing over the country.

Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said a series of fronts and cold air “straight from Antarctica” ultimately gave May its chilly close.

The cool change was all the more dramatic given the balmy conditions in the lead-up.

But Noll added some of those pleasant near-to-above average temperatures had returned to much of the North Island over the opening days of June.

While there has been severe weather to parts of the South Island, the west coast has seen some fine weather days. Niwa has forecast temperatures between now and the end of August would likely be above average or average.