Audrey Young: National on a roll

National’s win in the Northcote byelection guarantees the party will be fizzing when the House resumes tomorrow after the recess.

It has already been licking its chops at the prospect of making Jacinda Ardern squirm over ministers Kelvin Davis and Shane Jones.

She can also expect the Bunsen burner to be turned on herself and Megan Woods over oil and gas, although whether she stays in Wellington after today’s Cabinet meeting is not certain with her due date next Sunday.

Davis accused National’s Jacqui Dean of being “hysterical” when she pressured him on tourism at a select committee (he has since apologised).

Jones gloated about his home base of Northland getting much of New Zealand First’s so-called $1 billion slush fund (no apology necessary when truth is his defence).

And official documents confirmed the Government was warned that ending new offshore oil and gas exploration was likely to increase carbon emissions, not lower them, before Ardern and Woods announced the momentous decision.

On top of those issues, the byelection win by Dan Bidois with a slimmed-down majority 1362 has been a huge boost for National. It wasn’t just that National held on to the seat, it was how it kept the seat.

Despite the turnout being down from 77.57 per cent of registered voters in September to an estimated 43.7 per cent, the National candidate received about the same percentage of votes cast (51.1 per cent compared with 52.77 in 2017).

Speculation over what that means for the next election remains just that. The Greens weighed in behind Labour’s Shanan Halbert to lift Labour’s percentage from 35.59 per cent to 44.2 per cent. That enabled both parties to claim a legitimate victory.

Assuming Halbert stands in 2020 he can expect a much higher list place than the No 51 he got in 2017.

Bidois will have the benefit of incumbency. But he will have nothing like the ground support organised in the byelection by deputy leader Paula Bennett.

Labour has traditionally been better known for its strong ground game — but National is trying to match it. On Saturday National knocked on 5000 doors to remind people it believed would support its party to vote.

Bidois will certainly lift National’s spirits tomorrow but after that, he will be on his own.