Climate threat — where to start
Top Niwa scientist says councils know there’s a problem but are unsure how to begin tackling it
Cscience ouncils are struggling with planning for future sea level rise — and their biggest hurdle seems to simply be deciding where to start.
That’s according to a top Niwa scientist, now holding nationwide workshops with several other experts, and who wants to see communities acting as soon as possible.
Two-thirds of Kiwis live in areas that are vulnerable to flooding, and an estimated $200 billion of public assets and infrastructure is at risk from rising seas.
Niwa senior scientist Dr Rob Bell is part of a team now working on localised projections that vary from storm surge to the incursion of salt water into aquifers, estuaries and wetlands.
Bell has also co-authored separate guidance for councils that predicted between half a metre and 1.4m of sea level rise by 2120, depending on how global emissions tracked over this time.
“I think councils generally know there’s a problem and want to get on with it, but what I’ve picked up is that they don’t quite know where to start — often the biggest hurdle is getting off the starting blocks.”
The Niwa-hosted workshops, run by the Ministry for the Environment with the support of the Deep South National Science Challenge, were aimed at council staff, engineers, planners and infrastructure operators.
Their advice included how to get teams together to tackle the issue, and what they should be talking to their communities about.
While there was some unpredictability around what impacts would come, Bell didn’t see any room for complacency. “We’ve got to get on and do something now despite the uncertainty. Decisions can’t wait, so we are suggesting that adaptive planning and monitoring $200 billion
Value of infrastructure and public assets at risk from rising sea levels 0.5m — 1.4m
Sea level rise guidance for councils by 2120
progress towards decision points is the best tool in the box.
“Each coastal situation is different — some issues are imminent and some are down the track so councils and communities need to work out when they have to adapt and what short and long-term options are available to them,” Bell said.
“When they near a threshold they can then decide which of the options they want to implement.”
Monitoring what was happening would point councils to which sea level rise scenario was playing out, and whether they should be slowing down or speeding up their planning.
“Any decision made now will have repercussions for flexibility to adapt in the future but it is important to know what is coming, what the threshold is and have a plan in your pocket to switch to.”
Preparing early was a point stressed by Local Government New Zealand president Dave Cull at the council lobby group’s conference at Christchurch over the weekend.
Cull saw an urgent need to sort out goals, roles and responsibilities between central and local government.
“Some councils have proposals or ideas, but there are legal challenges — and there are cases where councils are reluctant to take risks because of impending costs.”
On a national scale, the high-level Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group has handed the Government a list of 21 recommendations as areas to focus on first.
Specific recommendations included is a senior meteorologist with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology amending the Local Government Act 2002 to specify climate change adaptation as a function of local government, and removing legal barriers so the work can happen more easily. Adaptation itself, the group’s report explained, could be split into four categories: avoiding places exposed to climate change impacts; retreating from those places over time; accommodating changes; and protecting against them through hard engineering.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw said public consultation on the Zero Carbon Bill, which closes this evening, included those proposals — namely requiring a national climate change risk assessment to be regularly undertaken. “In addition to that, we have the Productivity Commission launching its inquiry into how local government is funded, and that inquiry will take note of the financial demands local councils are facing as they deal with the risks and impacts of climate change.”