Venezuela plunges new depths
Population put to the test by currency devaluation
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro carried out one of the greatest currency devaluations in history at the weekend — a 95 per cent plunge that will test the capacity of an already beleaguered population to stomach even more pain.
One likely outcome is that inflation, which already was forecast to reach 1 million per cent this year, will get fresh fuel from the measures.
Prices are currently rising at an annualised rate of 108,000 per cent, according to Bloomberg’s Cafe con Leche index.
A massive exodus of Venezuelans fleeing to neighbouring countries will likely increase and with it, greater tensions and more restrictions.
Maduro’s new strategy for managing the economy is a desperate response after years of disastrous policies that undercut growth, sent prices soaring and turned what had once been one of Latin America’s wealthiest countries into a dysfunctional nation that’s spawned a refugee crisis.
Pressure is mounting on him to right the ship as calls for his overthrow grow six years after he took over for the late Hugo Chavez. This month, Maduro started a fresh crackdown on his opponents after a failed attempt to assassinate him using an aerial drone.
The economic shock measures demonstrate the “Government’s willingness to do what it takes to stay in power”, Raul Gallegos, an associate director at Control Risks, said from Bogota. “Maduro looks vulnerable, clearly something could happen.”
The streets of Caracas looked mostly empty as Venezuelans continued to digest the news and the impact it will have on their savings.
Many shops including supermarkets were closed and some businesses that opened were waiting for more details to adjust prices.
The devaluation comes at the same time the Government is redenominating the currency by lopping off five zeros and introducing new bills and a name change.
So instead of the new minimum wage being 1.8 million strong bolivars, it will be 1800 sovereign bolivars. Banks were closed and busy trying to adapt ATMs and online platforms to the new currency rules.
To make things more complicated, the new bolivar’s value will be linked to a crypto currency — believed to be the first time a government has ever employed the technique.
The so-called petro is backed by crude oil and is valued by the Government at US$60 ($90), or 3600 sovereign bolivars. The petro will fluctuate and be used to set prices for goods.
The value-added tax will rise 4 percentage points and officials will end some fuel subsidies, saving the Government US$10 billion a year, Maduro said, without providing more details. The central bank will increase the frequency of foreign exchange auctions to three and eventually five days a week.
In some ways, the devaluation is a mere formality. For years now, most people and companies have been unable to access dollars at government-set rates and have been purchasing them in the black market. As a result, the prices on many goods across the country are already based on that exchange rate.
“They had to do this because they ran out of money,” Moises Naim, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and a former minister in Venezuela, said from Washington.
He pointed out that oil production — pretty much the country’s sole industry at this point — has plummeted in recent years amid a shortage of equipment and technical expertise, foreign reserves have plummeted and allies such as China and Russia are providing less support.
Amid the cash crunch, Maduro has halted most payments on Venezuela’s foreign debt and is now US$6.1b in the hole with bondholders, cutting off most sources of new financing.
It’s not clear how the shock measures announced by Maduro will sit with one of his key allies: the military. Top ranking generals have been handed the keys to ministries, the state-run oil company and the lucrative business of food imports. Myriad exchange rates created juicy arbitrage opportunities that enriched many close associates of the state.
“Clearly this will hit Maduro’s popularity, but power is being sustained with bullets and not with votes,” Naim said. “As long as the military continues to have access to lucrative businesses it will continue to grant support to the Government.”
The opposition, a fragmented group of parties whose leaders are either in hiding or in jail, called for protests against the measures today. Several labour unions also called for a 24-hour national strike.— Bloomberg