Bet on ‘Butch’ to get conditions right

You can’t have a serious bet in Saturday’s $200,000 Tarzino Trophy until you know the exact track conditions, which will decide the result. Not unless you have total faith in the advice of Hawkes Bay Racing’s CEO and racing manager Andrew Castles. We do.

“Butch”, as he is known in the industry, is the best judge of Hawke’s Bay weather in the business.

His prediction of the likely track conditions of Saturday of high end dead is not based on pure optimism.

“The two weather reports we have found the most reliable lately say we are not going to get the level of rain they originally predicted. Until yesterday morning we were predicted to have up to 30ml of rain, now it’s been reduced to between 5 and 10ml.

“That would be perfect. This morning it was a genuine dead 4. The rain that’s now predicted could take it to a high end dead or a slow 7. With Saturday widely predicted to be very fine and warm, a high end dead would be a fair assumption and there wouldn’t be any of the connections disappointed with that.”

The barrier draw yesterday threw up some fancied chances that going to have to come out of awkward gates. They include Jon Snow 13, Authentic Paddy 14, Son Of Maher 16, Under the moonlight 15, New York Minute 17 and Sensible Princess 18. Each of those will come in two places if nothing comes out of the main field and the emergencies are scratched.

Favourite Melody Belle is well enough placed at 9 (into 7) and Jonno Benner is not disappointed with the gate just outside the mare, winner of the Foxbridge Plate.

In keeping with the configuration of this raceday in recent years, the inside 5m will be footing that has not been raced on since April.

“That said,” says Castles, “I’ve been walking the track each night and I can’t feel much difference between the footing all the way from the rail out to 10m.

“Beyond that there is a bit of evidence the track has been cut up when the rail has been out for one or two of the winter meetings.”

The new TAB top of the market prices after the barrier draw is: $4.80 Melody Belle, $6.20 Hiflyer, $6.50 Jon Snow, Scott Base, $9.80 Francaletta, $10,50 Ocean Emperor, Sensible Princess.

Castles has a leaning towards Hiflyer and Ocean Emperor.

“Hiflyer has that rock hard fitness from racing in Sydney and of the triallists, Ocean Emperor went huge. He won by a margin and wasn’t tested at Taupo. He has his residual fitness from racing in Singapore.”