Ma¯ ori seek biggest bang for vote
Numbers on general roll increase but it’s a case of deciding which option will result in greater political voice
The outcome of this year’s Ma¯ ori electoral option indicates a significant trend to the general roll. Most commentators believe the seven Ma¯ ori electorates will remain. However, once calculations tied to the South Island voter electorate ratio are completed, there might be only six.
For the first time in five re-enrolment options, the number of Ma¯ ori on the general roll grew more than the Ma¯ ori roll, 4000 to 1200. In another first, more Ma¯ ori chose to transfer from the Ma¯ ori roll to the general roll than went the other way, 10,200 to 8000.
Overall, Ma¯ ori voters have increased in 59 of 64 general electorates. Compare that to the earliest options when all general electorates lost Ma¯ ori voters. Of the five general electorates that did lose Ma¯ ori this time, two were by a single Ma¯ ori constituent.
The percentage of Ma¯ ori on the Ma¯ ori roll is at its lowest, at 52 per cent, since MMP began. The percentage of Ma¯ ori on the general roll, 48 per cent, is at its highest.
Supporters of the Ma¯ ori seats argue the trend in this year’s option might be the result of shoddy work by the Electoral Commission. However, whatever issues exist, they will have likely been there for some time and never impeded the earlier spectacular rise in the Ma¯ ori roll.
Those who say the Ma¯ ori electorates have passed their use-by date will claim Ma¯ ori are abandoning them. This is not strictly true. All seven Ma¯ ori electorates saw a modest rise in voter numbers.
New Ma¯ ori voters continue to favour the Ma¯ ori roll. At a ratio of just under twoto-one, this preference is lower than the peak of three or four-to-one in previous options, but consistent. A majority of Ma¯ ori remain on the Ma¯ ori roll.
To properly interpret the option, it is important to couple these figures with the enrolment patterns of new Ma¯ ori enrolments during the period between each option. Together these show Ma¯ ori voters shift their strategic choices according to the best opportunities for increasing their political voice.
Since the original four Ma¯ ori electorates were established in 1867, Ma¯ ori have sought greater representation.
In 1975 the Labour Government legislated an option allowing Ma¯ ori to choose between the Maori and general roll with provision to increase the number of Ma¯ ori electorates after each census. The next year, the National Government recapped Ma¯ ori seats at four. With that preventing an increase in Ma¯ ori seats, Ma¯ ori opted to influence elections through general seats. The Ma¯ ori roll fell to 41 per cent of Ma¯ ori voters by 1991.
Ma¯ ori voters found their preferred voice in 1996, the first MMP election, with the addition of a fifth Ma¯ ori electorate. More voice motivated more to enrol in Ma¯ ori seats. At each option, three to four times as many new Ma¯ ori voters joined the Ma¯ ori roll. The number of Ma¯ ori electorates rose to seven.
Factoring in enrolments between options shows 70 per cent of the total increase in Ma¯ ori voters between 1991 and 2006 went to the Ma¯ ori roll, which rose from 88,000 to 222,000 or 58 per cent.
Concerned at the limitations on Ma¯ ori MPs within the majority European caucus of their traditional ally, Labour, Ma¯ ori voters sought other voices. In 1996, they sent all five Ma¯ ori seats to New Zealand First. A decade later, they went to the Ma¯ ori Party.
As an MMP-empowered voice, Ma¯ ori were harsh when independent parties failed to deliver. The debacle of the National-NZ First Government returned the Ma¯ ori seats to Labour in 1999. The Ma¯ ori Party-Mana Movement disintegration saw loyalty tested in 2011 and 2014 before final rejection in 2017.
The last election unlocked a new voice born of the quiet revolution of more Ma¯ ori in Parliament. The number of Ma¯ ori MPs has grown from 13 in 1996 to 29 in this Parliament. Twenty are in the Labour, NZ First and Greens governing arrangement. Ten have executive portfolios.
MPs of Ma¯ ori descent lead National, NZ First, Act and the Greens and Kelvin Davis is deputy leader of Labour.
Alongside more cross-culturally informed leaders such as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, the new direction has reversed momentum away from the Ma¯ ori roll. The roll fell 3 per cent in the 2013 option and again this year.
Factoring all new enrolments, the net gain of 61,000 Ma¯ ori to the general roll since 2006, compared to 25,000 to the Ma¯ ori roll, exactly matches the earlier 70 per cent swing to the Ma¯ ori roll.
Whether the latest trend will continue or reverse is moot. Not all Ma¯ ori MPs are connected to Ma¯ ori communities. The new Government will need the right mix of mainstream andspecific strategies on Ma¯ ori concerns over poverty, housing, employment, education, and prison and youth suicide rates.
The Greens have just one Ma¯ ori MP. Labour’s Ma¯ ori MPs were not on its 2017 list. In a tight 2020 election, where is their place? Beyond that, new alt-right racism threatens Ma¯ ori rights.
If Labour falters and alt-right racism strengthens, the opportunity will open for another independent Ma¯ ori initiative. For that to be successful the lesson of recent history is that there can be one Ma¯ ori party.