Why Ireland’s hopes have taken a huge hit
The season’s biggest test has swung significantly in favour of an All Blacks win
Sorry, Irish rugby fans. Don’t intend to offend. But your chances of doubling the number of victories over the All Blacks have taken an almighty blow.
From a neutral perspective, it is sad, too, that the most anticipated test of 2018 won’t feature the absolute creme de la creme.
And therefore whatever the result in Dublin in just over two weeks, the psychological door could be left slightly ajar for the World Cup.
New Zealand and Ireland are the two best rugby nations on the planet right now, just as the Crusaders and Leinster are champions of their hemispheres (can someone, somewhere, please organise a decider).
Underpinning the two nations’ success are two brilliant Kiwi coaches, Steve Hansen and Joe Schmidt.
But perhaps more important is the central contracting element.
The relentless demands of the game mean only when national unions pull the strings is everything geared towards producing the best possible national team.
That is professional rugby’s pyramid for on-field international success.
In the saturated modern game, which now effectively runs every month of the year, this system paves clearly defined, carefully managed, rest and rotation across all teams, all levels. This is imperative to remain at the peak of the pack.
New Zealand protects and preserves its leading players expertly well. Ireland, in a dictatorial manner, has followed suit.
South Africa, Wales and Australia are all desperately trying to cobble together more aligned domestic approaches.
Long-term, the truth is England and France have no hope regaining control of their players from allpowerful clubs and will therefore always play catch-up on growing welfare and fatigue concerns.
Rest measures announced by England last week are akin to buying a puncture repair kit from Poundland.
Eddie Jones selecting his fourthchoice No 8 and loosehead prop for the All Blacks reveals everything about where the English game is heading.
Those injuries do not happen by chance. Ask Joe Marler or Sam Warburton why they retired.
Not so long ago, many pined for a match between Jones’ red hot
England and the All Blacks to supposedly decide the world’s best.
Last year, speculation centred on whether the All Blacks would swap their fixture against the Barbarians for England at Twickenham.
It didn’t eventuate, of course. And with Jones unable to maintain the initial response extracted from an emotionally damaged team still reeling from their failure to progress from their pool at a home World Cup, it is probably now left to Ireland to put the strongest challenge to the All Blacks’ mantle.
Not that you’ll hear anything of the like from the men in black.
No way in the Queen’s name would they ever underestimate or overlook England at Twickenham. Their focus is always week-to-week.
For the purposes of this piece, we can look forward, though.
And so the shame of it all is Ireland will be missing Conor Murray.
“What, that’s it?” you say. “I kept reading for that?”
Yes, that’s it.
Murray is without doubt one of the world’s most influential rugby figures. His importance to Ireland is greater than that of even Jonathan Sexton.
No disrespect to Ulster’s John Cooney, likely replacement against the All Blacks, but Murray, considered to have surpassed Peter Stringer as Ireland’s best halfback, is in another league.
For Munster, Ireland and the Lions, he is superb; mixing poise and control from the base with a kicking game — incredibly accurate box kicks — that often turns defence into attack. He also snipes regularly, particularly close to the line, and knows Sexton’s play intimately.
No one player defines a team, but remove Brodie Retallick from the All Blacks, and you then have an appreciation of his value to Ireland.
Murray hasn’t played since helping guide the Irish to their first three-test series win in Australia in June.
Such is his importance, rumours were rife a troublesome neck injury could end his career.
Fears were allayed somewhat when he turned down interest from the Top 14 to pen a four-year extension with Ireland, instilling his status as one of their highest earners.
He hopes to be cleared by medical staff to make his return with Munster some time in November.
But given what will, by that point, be a five-month absence, it was too late to be considered for Schmidt’s squad.
With the World Cup so close, why would you take the risk?
And so while nothing is ever a given, Murray’s absence is why the heavyweight showdown between the world’s premier rugby nations tilts significantly more in New Zealand’s favour.