Only two Cup spots left
Barring injury, the mix of loose forwards and locks appears the only undecided aspect of next year’s squad
Ayear out from the World Cup, the All Blacks probably already know 29 of the 31 players they will take to Japan.
There is not a huge amount of mystery hanging over this squad or much room for a dramatic change of thinking.
In all likelihood, only a couple of spots are deemed by the coaches to be open.
The uncertainty is in the loose forwards, where Liam Squire, Kieran Read, Sam Cane and Ardie Savea, barring injury, will be on the plane.
There remains a long list of potential candidates who could join them, and next year’s Super Rugby and Rugby Championship will be used as an extended trial to see who makes the most convincing case.
The door is open to Vaea Fifita, Matt Todd, Luke Whitelock, Shannon Frizell, Jordan Taufua, Dalton Papali’i and Jackson Hemopo.
Whether it is open to one or two will depend on whether the All Blacks opt to take three or four specialist locks.
In 2015, they went to England with only three and didn’t have a specialist on the bench for any of their knockout games.
It was a risk but one they felt they could take knowing Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick would go the full 80 as long as they avoided injury.
And if they were forced off, there was confidence Jerome Kaino or Kieran Read would be able to cover.
If they take four locks — and they would be Retallick, Whitelock, Scott Barrett and Patrick Tuipulotu — then the last place in the loose forwards will come down to who the coaches think will give them the best mix of skills they are looking for.
Probably, they will be looking to take another blindside — a big ball carrier and destructive defender.
Frizell appeared to be their preferred option for most of this year but injury prevented Taufua from taking his chance.
Fifita could position himself nicely if he’s able to impress on this tour and enjoy an extended run in the No 6 jersey for the Hurricanes next year.
Those three are scrapping for the fifth loose forward spot.
If the All Blacks coaches feel it is going to be a fast World Cup with the key battleground being the tackled ball, then they may take six loose forwards and just three locks.
That would most likely mean Todd being in and Tuipulotu being out.
Obviously injuries may force a few changes but there otherwise isn’t much intrigue or uncertainty.
Perhaps Kane Hames can return from injury next year and force his way back into the propping pool, but it would take a Herculean effort given the form of Joe Moody and Karl Tu’inukuafe.
Ngani Laumape continues to have his admirers but it’s hard to see him winning a spot ahead of Sonny Bill Williams, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue or Anton Lienert-Brown.
Nehe Milner-Skudder still has plenty to offer but he’s going to have to deliver something compelling to be picked as an outside back ahead of Ben Smith, Rieko Ioane, Waisake Naholo or Jordie Barrett.
Maybe the youngest Barrett is vulnerable but his versatility and goal-kicking will be difficult to overlook in a World Cup.
The three halfbacks and three hookers are unlikely to see a change in pecking order because there is no one outside the group banging down the door to be included.
So that's it — a year out from the World Cup and only two questions remain unanswered: who will win the shootout between the emerging blindsides and whether to take Tuipulotu or Todd?