5 possible scenarios
It’s polling day and we’re in a similar situation to two years ago. According to projections, Democrats are a strong favourite to win the night’s big prize — this time, the House. But as 2016 showed us, taking strong odds as guarantees can make you look awfully dumb. Here are a few ways it could go today.
1 Democrats win the House, while the Republicans hold the Senate and even gain a seat or two
This appears the most likely scenario, if you’re to believe the polls. Republicans have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, which means Democrats need a net gain of two seats to take the chamber. That’s unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for Republicans.
In the House, Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats. They are favoured to win 18 Republican seats, according to the Cook Political Report, and Republicans are favoured to win two Democratic seats. That means Democrats would only need to win seven of the 30 seats that Cook rates as “toss-ups”.
2 A ‘blue wave’ consumes the House, and the Senate is tight
Let’s assume we’re underselling the size of the blue wave. Let’s assume the double-digit leads that Democrats used to have on the generic ballot prevails on election day, and Americans vote Democratic by 10 or more points nationwide. In that scenario, we’d be talking about the majority of those 30 toss-ups going to Democrats, along with potentially some upsets in districts Republicans are expected to hold. The gains would give Democrats a House majority.
The biggest question in this scenario is whether Democrats would actually be able to get Beto O’Rourke across the finish line in Texas or pull an upset for the Tennessee seat between Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Phil Bredesen. This would be a clear repudiation of Trump.
3 Democrats somehow win both chambers, with the blue wave also consuming the Senate
This would be the really big wave — and it’s not inconceivable. Projections gave Donald Trump around a 1-in-6 shot at winning the presidency in 2016, and those are the odds the FiveThirtyEight site gives Democrats to win the Senate.
4 Republicans save the House and gain ground in the Senate
Speaking of small but substantial possibilities, that’s what Republicans have when it comes to holding the House. FiveThirtyEight has them at a 1-in-8 shot. They would maintain control of all the levers of power.
5 A wild card
Maybe Republicans narrowly hold the House, but Democrats keep the Senate close. Maybe Democrats win the House, but Republicans pick up Senate seats. Maybe Democrats pull a shocker in Tennessee and/or Texas but lose easier states. There are so many toss-ups that weird things can happen.