Xi, Putin talks on Trump’s G20 plate
The US-China trade war, Ukraine and the Khashoggi case are expected to feature
US President Donald Trump will play the role of a dutiful diplomat at a global economic summit this weekend, his schedule jammed with one-on-one meetings with allies including Germany, India, Japan and South Korea as well as the authoritarian leaders of Russia, China and Turkey.
Trump generally dislikes group chatfests such as the annual Group of 20 economic meeting. His mood in the weeks leading up to the gathering in Argentina was not helped by Republican losses in the Midterms, potential signs of trouble in the US economy and the Special Counsel’s Russia investigation.
The session also comes amid brewing trade spats, a volatile confrontation between Russia and US ally Ukraine, the fallout from the killing of Jamal Khashoggi and Brexit.
Initially, Trump’s only announced meetings were with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump aides wanted to avoid a repeat of the G7 in June, which Trump pushed wildly off the rails. He lectured longtime allies on trade, issued threats and pulled his name from a painstakingly negotiated joint statement..
Trump is skipping private time with the leaders of France, Britain and Canada, all of whom he has recently antagonised. His 45-minute session with Chancellor Angela Merkel, which came together hastily this week, is likely to include testy discussions about looming auto tariffs and Germany’s purchase of Russian natural gas.
“The pessimists in the delegation say the best we can hope for is there is not another disaster after the G7 and the Nato summit, so if things don’t get worse it’s already a success,” one European diplomat said.
The European wish list for the G20 is short, the diplomat said: Calm markets nervous about a US-China trade war, and avoid another round of tariffs against Europe and China.
Trump’s sessions with Putin and Xi overshadow his other diplomatic business. Putin escalated a military contest with Ukraine this week, and Trump has picked a trade fight with China that could worsen if his dinner meeting with Xi goes badly.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters that Trump sees a “good possibility” of a preliminary accord with China. “He’s open to it.” Trump has imposed tariffs on US$250 billion in Chinese products, supported new limits on Chinese investment in the US and moved to restrict exports to China that involve advanced technologies.
“China doesn’t need to be reminded of what is at stake,” said Alan Wheatley, a global economic analyst at think-tank Chatham House. “But they have been badly blindsided by Trump,” whose business background and transactional view of foreign policy had appealed to Beijing. “Their reading of him — and of course they’re not alone — has been wrong.”
US national security adviser John Bolton gave only a cursory preview of the agenda with Putin — primarily arms control and security issues. Trump threatened to cancel the Putin meeting over the confrontation with Ukraine, a move that would answer critics who argue that a private one-on-one would reward Putin for provocations. But the meeting was still on, and the Kremlin said Putin is planning on it.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to take Trump to task over the death of Khashoggi inside the Turkish Consulate in Istanbul. Trump last week said that regardless of whether Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman orchestrated the US resident’s killing, the US-Saudi relationship was too important to breach.
Some dynamics will be different from the G7: The G20 will include the presence of populist and right-wing leaders more aligned with Trump’s worldview. “The room is slightly more friendly for Trump,” one diplomat said.
More friendly, perhaps, but wary of Trump’s unpredictability and taste for drama.