Fog of confusion over Syria policy
Trump, US officials have made conflicting statements
The United States seemingly entered the new year with a new strategy for the war in Syria: It’s time to get out. US President Donald Trump made a surprise announcement that Isis (Islamic State) had been defeated in Syria and that US troops in the country would be coming home. That decision caught Washington off guard and sparked considerable controversy. But both Trump and Administration officials have offered conflicting — and often confusing — statements about the timing of the exit and what the US strategy in Syria now entails.
1) How did this start?
Trump tweeted on December 19 that Isis had been defeated in Syria — a goal that he said had been the only reason for a US presence there. The White House later confirmed that the US would move quickly to withdraw all its forces from Syria. “They’re all coming back, and they’re coming back now,” Trump said in a video message. Trump framed his decision to pull US troops out as the fulfillment of a campaign promise. The President was a longtime critic of the Obama Administration’s policy on fighting Isis in Syria.
2) Is that still the policy?
It’s hard to say. After his announcement sparked a loud backlash, Trump extended his initial 30-day deadline for the pullout to four months — and then said publicly that he didn’t approve of a four-month deadline, either. “I never said fast or slow,” Trump insisted at a January 2 Cabinet meeting. Trump’s allies have also suggested that the pullout plans are up in the air. After a meeting with the President on December 30, Senator Lindsey Graham, R, told reporters that it was a “pause situation” rather than a pullout. National security adviser John Bolton said that a number of objectives would have to be met before a withdrawal takes place. And Trump appeared to contradict his own prior statements about the timing. “I never said we’re doing it that quickly,” he told reporters.
3) Why was there so much resistance to a pullout?
Many of Trump’s foreignpolicy advisers and allies support a strong line against Iran and view the US presence in Syria as key to checking Tehran. As recently as September, the State Department’s special representative for Syria engagement, James Jeffrey, told reporters that the US mission in Syria included the departure of all Iranian military and proxy forces and the installation of a stable new government. “That means we are not in a hurry,” Jeffrey said. Among the Iran hawks was Defence Secretary Jim Mattis,
who has resigned. 4) How many US troops are in Syria?
About 2200 US forces are in Syria. There are also 5200 US troops in Iraq.
5) Has Isis been defeated?
It has lost almost all of the territory it held at its peak in 2014 and 2015. The US-led military intervention that began during the Obama Administration has certainly helped with this. But estimates suggest the group may still have 30,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq.
6) What effect could a pullout have?
Turkey is a potential winner. The prospect of a pullout has deeply alarmed the Syrian Kurdish forces allied with the US. Turkey considers them terrorists and has vowed to drive them out of northeastern Syria. Bolton said that an agreement would be reached to keep the Kurds out of “jeopardy,” but Kurdish officials say they are seeking a deal with President Bashar alAssad’s Government just in case. Any agreement with the Kurds would be a boon for Assad, Russia and Iran.